In the past two days, the market has actually given a fairly clear signal – the key is not whether it goes up or down, but whether it can break through the previous high.
Looking at BTC first , after rebounding from around 735 yesterday, it approached the previous high again, but the overall upward momentum was weak, and it is currently in a typical "Double Top resistance zone." If it cannot effectively break through and hold above this level, then a pullback is highly likely, and it will likely be significant. The first short-term support level to watch is around 735; if this level breaks, 726 will become the first line of defense on the daily chart. The more crucial support remains in the 706-696 range, which will determine whether the medium-term structure holds.
Looking at ETH , its movement largely follows the broader market. The area around 2300 is currently a key resistance level. If it can break through and hold above this level, it's expected to continue its upward trend this week, potentially even driving a recovery in the altcoin market, with upside potential reaching 2500-2600. In a strong scenario, a push into even higher ranges is not out of the question. However, if it fails to hold above this level, the short-term structure will weaken. The first support level to watch is 2260, with further pullback targeting the key 2050-2120 range.
The recent trend in the counterfeit goods sector is quite clear: it's not a general price increase, but rather a situation where "it explodes when there's a hot topic and falls silent when there isn't."
The market changes over the past two days are quite obvious: from large-scale manipulation and BSC-related assets to BTC inscriptions, and then to various thematic rotations, funds are constantly switching tracks. The strength of inscription assets like ORDI and SATS is essentially due to concentrated holdings and positive catalysts, rather than a simple catch-up rally logic.
At the same time, it's important to note that for commodities like #RAVE that have experienced a short-term surge of dozens of times, the risks are gradually emerging. Prices are still rising, but trading volume is starting to lag behind, essentially indicating that the major players have entered the distribution phase. This type of market movement is most likely to trigger emotional reactions; chasing the price higher could very well leave you standing at the peak.
Let me briefly discuss a few examples from the counterfeit market:
The ChiNext index is currently trading within an upward channel, with consistently higher lows, indicating a relatively healthy structure. If it can effectively break through the upper channel line, it could open up new upside potential; conversely, if it fails to break through, it will likely continue to oscillate and retrace within the channel.
$BIO previously experienced a rapid increase in volume, but it has now entered a phase of "rising too fast." At this point, it is not advisable to chase the price higher. It is more reasonable to wait for a pullback to confirm support before considering low-risk participation.
Although $PEPE's performance is weak, as one of the leading MEME stocks, it still has room for growth. Positions entered at lower levels can be held, as they often see a rebound when market sentiment improves.
Furthermore, the recent weakness of coins like $TAO and $ZEC is a typical sign that their upward trend has ended. Market funds rotate; it's difficult for a stock that has already experienced a surge to immediately see a second wave. The real opportunities lie with those coins that haven't yet started to move and are currently at relatively low levels.
In summary: Don't stubbornly hold onto coins that have already risen, and don't blindly chase highs. Finding opportunities by following the rotation of funds is a much better way to survive in the altcoin market than simply holding on to losing positions.
The current market situation resembles a combination of structural opportunities and high-level speculation. Major cryptocurrencies are hovering around key resistance levels, while altcoins are experiencing rotational price increases driven by sentiment. In terms of trading, patience is more important than impulsiveness—understanding the current level and controlling the pace are far more valuable than blindly chasing the rally.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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