This week's rebound may seem exciting, but on-chain data suggests that institutions have already been quietly withdrawing.
Recently, a multi-billion dollar asset management giant has been continuously reducing its BTC holdings, almost always by hundreds of millions of dollars, even accelerating its selling when market sentiment was at its peak. It's worth noting that most of these holdings buy the dips at the bottom around $60,000, and now choosing to cash out in batches at higher levels seems more like taking advantage of a rebound to distribute shares, rather than continuing to be bullish.
To put it simply: right now, it's mostly retail investors chasing the market while institutional investors are selling. Don't get the roles reversed.
From a broader perspective, the current rebound is more like a temporary correction than a trend reversal. On one hand, the "positive expectations" regarding geopolitical tensions have already been priced in; on the other hand, macroeconomic pressures (employment, liquidity) have not truly eased. Until genuine easing measures arrive, a major market rally remains uncertain. Therefore, even if there is further upward potential, it is likely to be a sentiment-driven "final surge."
Looking at the chart again
The area around 76,000 for Bitcoin remains a strong resistance zone. It might surge to around 78,000, forming a false breakout before entering a pullback phase. Strategically, rather than chasing the rally at high levels, it's safer to patiently wait for a weakening signal after the initial surge and then gradually build positions. The short-term rebound has already been significant, and a pullback is objectively warranted.
Structurally, BTC and ETH have regained their positions above the MA120, providing room for some mainstream cryptocurrencies to catch up. Tokens like DOGE, SOL, XRP, LINK, and SUI show signs of building momentum. Ideally, the current market would see mainstream cryptocurrencies consolidate at high levels, allowing funds to rotate into other sectors and creating an atmosphere of a "bull market return." However, this is more like a temporary market movement than the start of a full-blown bull market.
In terms of funding, the focus remains on a few highly controlled coins and sentiment-driven stocks, such as "Binance Life" and RAVE, which exhibit extreme price movements. These are essentially game-theoretic markets driven by token availability, rendering technical analysis largely ineffective. Meanwhile, some projects with high unlocking pressure (such as WLD and Trump) are prone to selling pressure even with positive news, making it more advisable to observe rather than chase the highs.
In this market rally, "Binance Life" has already reached a new high, fulfilling earlier expectations. How much further it can rise depends more on market sentiment; a wait-and-see approach is more suitable than blindly chasing the highs.
$GIGGLE , on the same price line, is noticeably slower, largely following the lead of the leading coin's upward trend. Completely replicating its movement is unrealistic, but while sentiment remains, there's still room for speculation. However, these types of coins are extremely volatile, so position sizes and mindset must be kept light; the key is timing, not conviction.
Structurally , $HNT has completed a rounded bottom breakout and stood above the key neckline, indicating a gradual shift from long-term consolidation to trend expansion. Currently, it is in a pullback confirmation phase. If it can hold above the breakout level, there is still room for further upward movement; however, if it breaks below, it will need to digest selling pressure before discussing trend continuation.
The RENDER pattern warrants more caution, as it leans more towards a head and shoulders top structure, indicating a potential weakening trend. However, the right shoulder phase often presents an upward opportunity, making this a window to gradually establish short positions. A conservative approach would be to wait for a rebound to the resistance zone before shorting, while a more aggressive approach could involve a short-term long position, but quick entry and exit are crucial.
The price movement of $PEPE is relatively cleaner, running along an upward channel. After holding the central axis, it continued to rise with increased volume, which is a typical trend continuation structure. This type of market requires patience and execution, rather than frequent trading.
Overall, the key words for this round of market activity can be summed up in two words: rotation and distribution . While upward movement has indeed occurred, the pace is accelerating and the divergence is becoming increasingly pronounced. Instead of frequently chasing hot sectors, it's better to control your position size and wait for opportunities with greater certainty.
In summary, this surge resembles the "end-of-rebound hype" rather than the start of a new cycle. Real opportunities often emerge after the initial excitement has subsided.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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