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ToggleOn the same day, two major Wall Street firms simultaneously expressed their views on prediction markets, signaling another clear shift in the industry's direction. Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster revealed to investors during a conference call on Thursday, "I think we're very likely to launch a prediction market product at some point."
On the same day, Jim Esposito, president of Citadel Securities, also stated at the Semafor Forum in Washington, D.C. that the company is "continuously monitoring" developments in the forecasting market.
The executives had already placed their bets in private.
It is understood that Charles Schwab, the founder of Charles Schwab, was one of the early investors in Kalshi, and Kalshi has even been described as "one of his largest investments outside of his $176 billion brokerage business."
Kalshi completed a funding round last June with a valuation of $2 billion. At the same time, Citadel CEO Peng Zhao also personally invested in Kalshi.
Charles Schwab CEO: We don't touch sports or politics, we only make wealth management tools.
During the earnings call, Wurster admitted that he recently asked a group of Charles Schwab clients for their opinions on prediction markets, and the response was "not much interest." However, he added that this is an area the company "should seriously examine, and launching related products is quite straightforward for us."
It's worth noting that Wurster has drawn a clear line for its future products: no betting on sports, politics, or popular culture. "Prediction markets that don't fit this positioning are not what we want to pursue," he said. "If you look at the bettors' win rates, the performance isn't impressive; people are losing money overall."
Citadel: Liquidity is insufficient, but the market will "expand rapidly."
Citadel Securities President Esposito was more cautious in his remarks at the Semafor forum. He stated that the market is currently "not liquid enough" and the company is not yet ready to enter, but he anticipates that the market will "scale up rapidly," and the possibility of Citadel's involvement definitely exists.
Esposito also distanced himself: "We're not looking at sports at all right now, and I don't think we'll be entering that market." However, he expressed clear interest in event contracts, particularly election-related ones. He pointed out that these contracts allow retail and institutional clients to hedge against significant political risks in their portfolios.
"These will be one of the biggest portfolio risks that investors will have to face," Esposito said. "There is a clean and clear way to hedge specific risks, and I think there are good use cases and business logic for that."
Market size: US$23.6 billion in March alone.
The explosive growth of Kalshi and Polymarket over the past few months is the fundamental reason why they have attracted the attention of traditional financial institutions. According to Token Terminal data, the two platforms set a new record for combined monthly trading volume of $23.6 billion in March of this year; if we look at the cumulative figures so far in 2026, the two platforms have already exceeded $60 billion.
Analysts predict that the total trading volume for the year could reach $240 billion, with an annualized growth rate of up to 80% over the next five years.
However, rapid growth has also brought regulatory friction. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been sued by some state-level regulatory agencies in the United States, accused of providing unlicensed sports betting services; some federal lawmakers have also threatened to impose stricter controls on insider trading. This is precisely the background to why Charles Schwab and Citadel both emphasize "not touching sports"—traditional institutions want the financial instrument attributes of event contracts, rather than the qualitative risks of betting platforms.
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