First, let's talk about the macro situation. Things aren't really peaceful outside.
The ceasefire agreement was at its final stage when Iran refused to negotiate, refusing to even sit down at the negotiating table. Then, at this crucial moment, Trump stepped in and said: "The ceasefire will continue, but you need to give me a unified negotiation plan." Simply put, this means—"We can postpone it, but the initiative must be in my hands."
Meanwhile, the US military was not idle either, continuing the naval blockade. This rhythm was essentially: talks could continue, but the pressure could not be stopped.
Adding to the negative news, the Federal Reserve has also begun to "change its tune." New chairman candidate Kevin Wash was clearly hawkish during his hearings, and the market immediately understood: interest rate cuts may not be happening anytime soon.
The result was straightforward—US stocks continued to fall, gold also came under pressure, and risk assets as a whole were not feeling well.
Now, back to the crypto, here comes the important part.
Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently hovering around $76,000. It experienced a sell-off over the weekend, but it's not a major issue. From its recent low, this rally has already reached approximately 25%. However, there's a key point to note:
👉 The 78,000 level is not just any resistance level, but a confluence of the real cost line and the bull market support zone (20-week moving average).
In other words, this isn't a place you can just break through whenever you want.
The market outlook is actually quite simple, with only two possible scenarios: 1. A further 20% rise → essentially confirming a bull market resurgence.
2. A 20% pullback could lead to a renewed bearish trend.
The key dividing lines are several "critical lines".
For this wave, we can focus on these three lines and enter them in batches:
1️⃣ 60,000 (200-week moving average) 2️⃣ 54,000 (realized price) 3️⃣ 45,000 (cost line for long-term holders)
You can understand realized price as: the average holding cost of the entire market.
Historically, every bear market that truly bottoms out has "sharply broken" through this line and will remain below it for some time.
So if it really does crash in this area one day, it actually gives you time to get on board.
Let's talk about Ethereum again $ETH .
The viewpoint is also very clear:
👉 For amounts under $2000, you can take your time picking them up.
Why?
Because the cost for large funds (whales) in ETH is in the range of 2000-2500.
If you start buying from 2000, you're essentially starting on the same footing as whale.
Another detail: The current "network average cost" (realized price) of ETH is around 2340, and the price is fluctuating around this level.
If the weakness continues in the short term, there is a key reference level:
👉 1640 (negative one standard deviation)
Historically, this area has been a very strong bottom (including the 2022 bear market).
But don't be too optimistic—if the market goes to extremes, it's still possible that, like in 2018, the "false support level will be broken through directly."
———
The on-chain data part is actually more interesting.
Over the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have been frantically accumulating their holdings.
👉 +350,000 BTC
What does this tell us?
It's not retail investor sentiment, but rather "long-term capital is repositioning itself."
There's a key driving force behind this – micro-strategies.
This year alone, I've bought 140,000 BTC. The last two weeks were even more extravagant: one wave saw $1 billion buys, the other $2.5 billion.
They directly dumped the existing stock.
But here's the problem—buying may be suspended this week.
The reason is that their financing instrument, STRC, has fallen below $100, making it a bit harder to get money.
And it's already Wednesday, and there hasn't even been a financing round this week.
This means:
👉 The market has lost a "super buyer"
———
Are there any buyers left?
Yes, but not powerful enough.
ETFs continue to see inflows, reaching nearly $1 billion last week and continuing into this week.
But on the other hand, it's more real:
👉 Some people are frantically taking profits.
Short-term holders who have been stuck with losses for too long will sell as soon as they are close to breaking even.
More than 60,000 BTC have already been dumped.
And now there's a very crucial piece of data:
👉 Short-term holder cost: 80,500
In other words—
As long as the price moves closer to this level, another wave of selling pressure will come.
———
So what is the true nature of the market now?
It's not that no one is buying, but rather: 👉 The buying pressure isn't strong enough to suppress the selling pressure.
What are so many people doing?
Unwinding positions, reducing holdings, and optimizing portfolio allocation
This is not a characteristic of the start of a bull market; it is a rebound and recovery period.
A true bull market should be characterized by: 👉 More buyers joining in as prices rise, even willing to chase the highs.
Instead of the current situation: 👉 The higher the price, the more people want to run away.
———
Finally, here's a very crucial point:
Every bear market rally has a phase where the market begins to "feel that it's all over."
As sentiment improves, more and more people are calling for bulls.
But the price is just—👉 The further you walk, the more difficult it becomes.
Right now, it's actually quite similar to this stage.
———
Of course, this round is also different:
There are indeed more institutional investors, and ETFs are continuously draining funds.
This means that the drop may not be as dramatic as before.
That's why I dared to start with 60,000 and gradually take on more projects.
———
In short: It's not that there aren't opportunities now, but rather—👉 it's not yet time to "blindly jump on the bandwagon."
If it needs to be done in batches, then do it in batches; if it needs to be done later, then wait.
I'm already in the car, but I'm not pressing the accelerator hard. I'm saving my bullets for the real opportunity.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
