The bearish outlook was already clear a couple of days ago, but the conditions for a direct, one-sided decline are not present in the short term.
A core contradiction in the current market is that the overwhelming number of short sellers is preventing a sustained downward trend. The extent of the next rebound depends not on the strength of the bulls, but on when the short sellers are worn down and forced to surrender. However, it's crucial to understand that this is a rebound, not a bull market correction.
Structurally, #BTC remains range-bound on the four-hour chart, without a clear trend. The 75-76 level remains a key short-term support. If it breaks below this level and closes with a bearish candlestick, the logic for short on rallies will become clearer, with a target of 70-72. However, before that, the market is likely to continue its sideways movement.
#ETH is relatively weaker, with the four-hour chart showing signs of a downward test. The 2260-2300 range is currently a key support level. If this range is broken, the downside potential could widen further, potentially leading to a shift in the overall market trend, not just a simple support breach. Watch the 2050-2130 area for support, but also be wary of sudden, accelerated price movements.
$ZEN formed a standard "rounded bottom + breakout" pattern. After the breakout, it retraced to confirm support and successfully stabilized. Subsequently, it rose by about 17%. Although the short-term momentum has slowed down and some retracement has occurred, as long as the price remains above the key breakout level, the overall upward structure is still valid, which is a typical reversal continuation trend.
LUNC 's price movement is largely driven by sentiment; currently, it's the only stock truly leading the gainers list. Stocks like LUNA, USTC, and FTT are merely following the market rebound and haven't formed independent strength, indicating that the sector hasn't yet entered a phase of full-scale acceleration. A more prudent approach is to: set a break-even protection for spot positions that haven't yielded significant profits, gradually raise profit targets for existing gains, and exit decisively if key levels are breached; for futures contracts, focus on small positions for trial and error, avoiding heavy-position speculation.
$BIO (April 23rd, internal analysis) is maintaining its upward trendline support on the 4-hour chart. Structurally, it's consistently making higher lows, indicating a consolidation phase and showing some strength. As long as it doesn't break below the trendline support, there's still room for further upward movement; however, a break below would warrant caution regarding a deeper correction.
The current trend of $PEPE is somewhat "sluggish," primarily due to the heavy and complex distribution of its shares. Both retail investors and whale are participating at high frequencies, resulting in significant selling pressure during upward movements. The dense concentration of trapped investors above means that any upward movement is often met with selling pressure, making the market resemble a repetitive game at the end of a phase.
The $S structure is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with the highs and lows converging, indicating a near balance between bullish and bearish forces. Once this type of structure chooses a direction, it is usually accompanied by a strong trend. However, before a valid breakout, fluctuations and false signals will still be frequent, making patient waiting for confirmation crucial.
$PENGU is one of the few cryptocurrencies that has recently broken out of its long-term sideways trading range, demonstrating a certain level of investor interest. If this trend continues, it's possible that it will challenge the positions of other popular cryptocurrencies. However, in the short term, it's advisable to observe and follow the trend, letting time prove its strength.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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