Bitcoin's last three cycles all share a pattern. Initial drawdown of ~50% from peak → sideways consolidation → second catalyst → deeper low. 2018: 50% drop from $20K to $10K. Eight months of sideways. Then the November capitulation to $3K. 2022: 50% drop from $69K to $35K. Consolidation through spring. Then the LUNA collapse and FTX drove $15K. 2026: 50% drop from $126K to $60K. Three months into the sideways phase right now. The first drop is always the liquidity reset. The second drop, if it comes, needs a catalyst. A labor market break. An equity unwind. A credit event. Something exogenous. Absent one, the market probably grinds sideways through May and June. That's not bullish. It's a different kind of bearish. Manage the position accordingly.

threaten

When do you think we will get the second drawdown ?

within the next 3 months imo

Ya I think good chance of that