Written by: Ignas
Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow
Without further ado, let’s get straight to the point. Here are my top ten predictions for DeFi and cryptocurrencies in 2023:
1. When volatility returns, the DeFi options narrative will gain huge traction
Here's why: Robinhood netted $363 million in 2021 from fees ($52 million in stocks, $48 million in cryptocurrencies, and $163 million in options).
For DeFi options to happen, the UI/UX needs to improve and be mobile-friendly.
Due to the complexity of options, there is also a huge knowledge asymmetry in option trading. This means that whoever implements "DeFi Robinhood" could translate into huge revenue.
I'm looking at $RBN, $DPX, $LYRA, $HEGIC, $PREMIA...but we're not there yet!
2. "Modular blockchain" narrative
Modularity is the ultimate scalable way for blockchains. Celestia, Mantle, and EigenLayer will be hot, but Cosmos, Polkadot, and Ethereum will also benefit.
These new tokens will have high valuations.
3. $ ETH will outperform $ BTC
The BTC narrative is tied to money printing, but money printing is currently on hold.
The performance of ETH is related to the following factors:
- Growth of L2/L3
- Net income + EigenLayer re-staking
- DeFi and NFT activity
But beyond will not happen yet.
4. Increased adoption of Soulbound
SBTs were introduced 7 months ago by V. Buterin et al. to enable Web3 to enter the real world economy. SBTs represent your real identity on the chain and are non-transferable.
Figure out how to speculate with SBT and you will be successful!
5. Real-world assets increase the returns of DeFi
For example Maker is talking about the DAI savings rate, so a portion of the TradFi proceeds will go to $DAI holders. More protocols will adopt TradFi/RWA to obtain higher returns.
6. Intense competition in the DEX space will lead to diversification of their business models
Most DEXs start out as forks of UNI V2 on different chains. In 2022, they add new features and expand to other chains. Pancakeswap to Ethereum, Trader Joe's to BNB chain and more.
As DEX aggregators grow, capital efficiency in the spot market becomes key to survival. To be successful, DEXes will introduce new features beyond trading to diversify and stand out. Also, the UNI V3 license will expire in April, so we will see a V3 fork and maybe Uniswap V4.
7. Renewed interest in metaverse/VR
Apple is reportedly launching "Reality Pro," a VR headset that will rekindle the crypto dream of a decentralized metaverse. A metaverse cryptocurrency project that successfully launches on the App Store/VR could be a major success.
8. The growth of simplified versions of DeFi
DeFi has become increasingly complex and does not welcome new users. To attract new users, the protocol will introduce a one-click simplified version of its main functionality.
Examples: Instadapp Lite and Oasis Earn.
9. At least one other major Web2 company will integrate NFTs
Reddit succeeded, showing how NFTs can become mainstream gameplay. Other Web2 companies will sneak in NFTs without users even knowing they are using them. Teams like Polygon are making this happen.
10. The arrival of a new generation of hardware wallets
2022 has taught people the importance of self-regulation, but it won't be easy.
Ledger Stax and Keystone have made improvements, and other wallets are coming, but I would like to see seedless recovery, better integration with dApps, and a vastly improved user experience.
