This article is machine translated
Show original

Munger: How to Grow a Small Amount of Capital A blurry video, seemingly shot with an iPhone 4, is circulating online. The video shows the elderly Charlie Munger. Someone asked him: "How do you achieve a 50% annualized return with only a small amount of money?" Munger didn't give a formula or list any steps. He told the story of someone he had never met—his great-grandfather. This old man came to Iowa with nothing, participated in the Black Hawk Down war, endured unimaginable hardships, and eventually became the richest man in his small town, owning a bank, a mansion, iron fences, and a wide lawn. Munger's great-grandfather said something to his family in his later years that Munger remembered to this day: "A person only has a few real opportunities in their lifetime." This sentence was everything Munger wanted to say that day. I. Find Opportunities Where No One Is Watching Let's imagine a scenario. In a market, a stall sells items priced significantly lower than expected, attracting a large crowd of people eager to buy. In another alley, there's an inconspicuous stall offering the same things for a lower price, but almost no one notices it. Why doesn't anyone go there? Because that alley is too remote; people are too lazy to walk there. That's how the investment market works. Warren Buffett once said that when he was managing a small sum of money, he would sift through thousands of pages of financial statements, occasionally finding one or two companies that were ridiculously cheap, obviously cheap. But as his money grew, those opportunities disappeared for him—not that the opportunities disappeared, but that he became too big to enter that alley. Munger's first core point is: the biggest advantage of small capital is precisely its "smallness." Berkshire Hathaway now has a market capitalization of nearly $1.02 trillion, making it one of the world's largest non-tech U.S. companies. It sounds impressive, but Munger and Buffett have long said that size is the biggest obstacle to their investment returns. Because they can only look at big opportunities, and the pricing of big opportunities is always being watched by countless eyes. Companies with a market capitalization of over 1 billion might be followed by dozens of analysts, and every piece of news is quickly reflected in the stock price. But a small company with a market capitalization of 50 million might not be seriously studied by any professional institution at all. This is where pricing fails. This is the "small stall in the alley." Many institutional investors are constrained by regulations and are simply not allowed to buy stocks with a market capitalization below a certain threshold—for example, companies with a market capitalization below 5 billion are simply not on their radar. Those overlooked areas are not because they lack value, but because they are too small for anyone to bother picking up. For ordinary people like us, this is actually a real window. II. Be patient, and when you get it, be ruthless. Munger told the story of baseball hitter Ted Williams, a story worth telling. Williams is one of the greatest hitters in American baseball history. He wrote a book called *The Science of Hitting*. In the book, there's a diagram that divides the hitting area into 77 small squares and then marks his batting average when he swung from each position. The sweetest area has a batting average of 40%. The very edge of the market only accounts for 23%. Williams concluded: I only hit the balls in my sweet spot. Even if it means striking out, I won't hit the low-probability balls. Munger, upon reading this, exclaimed in admiration—isn't this the essence of investing? Thousands of "balls" fly into the market every day, but most are not in your sweet spot. You can stand there, do nothing, and watch the balls fly by. Only when a ball lands precisely in your sweet spot do you swing with all your might. Munger's second core point is: the most important action in investing is often not striking, but waiting. This contradicts our intuition. We always feel that "doing something" is progress, and being idle is a waste of time. But in investing, inaction is sometimes the most difficult, and also the most correct, action. Munger himself said that good opportunities may only appear once every few months, or even once every few years. But precisely because it's rare, when it finally arrives— "You must go all in, go as far as you can." Not "buy a little to test the waters," but a truly heavy investment. Here's an interesting psychological phenomenon: after waiting a long time, people often become anxious, wondering, "Did I make a mistake?" or "Did I miss something?" and then they look for "good enough" opportunities to comfort themselves. And this, precisely, destroys the entire meaning of waiting. The value of waiting only becomes apparent the moment you actually act. III. Don't Put Your Eggs in a Hundred Baskets "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"—almost everyone has heard this saying. But Munger insists on the opposite. Munger's family's assets are concentrated in only three things: Berkshire Hathaway stock, Costco stock, and a fund managed by an investor named Li Lu. Just these three. Munger's third core point is: diversification is a compensation for "not knowing what you're buying." If you truly understand, you don't need so much diversification. He told the story of a friend named John Ariaga, a billionaire who made his fortune in real estate. You might assume such a person would spread their money across the country, investing in various types of real estate. Quite the opposite. Ariaga's entire real estate investment was concentrated in one place: within a one-mile radius of the Stanford University campus. Just that one mile. For forty years, he did only one thing: avoid excessive debt, buy when the market was in a panic, and sell when the market was in a frenzy. He must have been advised countless times to invest elsewhere, in other cities, in other types of real estate. He didn't go. He stayed within that one mile, studying every building, every street, and every tenant's preferences to a depth that others could never match. This was his moat—not capital, but the density of his knowledge. When your understanding of something is deeper than everyone else's, you naturally possess a pricing advantage. The logic of diversification is essentially diluting profound knowledge into many superficial understandings. Munger said, "If I had followed traditional financial theory to invest, I would be much poorer." Finally, returning to the old man's story, Munger wasn't talking about wealth, but about an attitude towards opportunity. The old man came to Iowa, where the black soil was cheap but fertile. Whenever there was panic or crisis, when others were fleeing, he bought several farms and rented them to hardworking German immigrants. He didn't do much, just a few times. But those few times were enough. "A person only has a few real opportunities in their lifetime." When Munger said this, there was no pessimism in his tone, but rather a sense of relief. It wasn't "Only a few, it's a pity," but rather "Only a few, so don't waste your energy; wait until it comes and bet on it." We always live in an illusion, thinking that opportunities come out of nowhere, that they'll appear every now and then, and that if we miss this one, there will be another. So we're always careless, always "let's try it first," always holding back half our strength. But those who truly turn small amounts of money into large sums often do so not because they find numerous opportunities, but because they patiently wait, and then, on those one or two opportunities, unhesitatingly bet their entire understanding and conviction. This isn't gambling; it's accumulation. Accumulating deep knowledge of a small market, accumulating the ability to wait patiently without anxiety, and accumulating the courage to take the plunge when the opportunity truly arrives. It sounds simple, but every step goes against human nature. Perhaps that's why only a minority can truly achieve this.

看不懂的SOL
@DtDt666
Looking Back from 2029, This Article Is the Watershed Moment in Countless People's Fates I rarely write with such grand titles But for this piece today, I want to make an exception Not to chase clicks, but because I believe you're standing right now at a fork in the road that x.com/DtDt666/status…
From Twitter
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments