Analysts say the current rise in Bitcoin is a rebound after a sharp drop, not the start of a new bull market.

According to Mars Finance, on May 10th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. published an article stating that he remains cautious about Bitcoin's recent price movements, believing the current rise is a corrective rebound after a sharp drop, rather than the start of a confirmed new bull market. He pointed out that while the market has recovered after BTC fell from $125,000 to $60,000, many indicators have not yet reached the historical bear market bottom range. For example, the long-term holder (LTH) position structure has not yet formed a typical bottom accumulation pattern, and the market has not experienced a complete spot sell-off and panic clearing phase. On the macro level, Axel Adler Jr. believes the market also faces pressure. He cited data showing that the US consumer confidence index fell to a historic low of 48.2, while Brent crude oil remained around $100, exacerbating inflation concerns. Furthermore, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.5%, also putting pressure on risk assets. He stated that the current interest rate market is no longer betting on a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and has even begun to factor in the probability of future rate hikes. Against this backdrop, they believe that BTC still lacks sufficient on-chain structural confirmation, stable spot demand, and relief from supply-side pressures, and therefore maintain a cautious stance.