Bitfinex Alpha is, besides Glassnode, the professional research report I personally follow most. Its analytical framework, covering macroeconomics, on-chain data, technical analysis, and institutional fund flows, is among the best in the industry. For example, its latest report concludes that the structural buying in this rebound is insufficient to offset a macroeconomic shift, and BTC is likely to trade in the $72,000-$80,000 range in the short term. One of the core data supporting this conclusion is the 30-day net position change in realized market capitalization (RC 30D NPC), which we discussed last week. The data cited by the Bitfinex research team is consistent with what we've seen: the current reading is +$2.8 billion/month, an order of magnitude slower than the rapid surge from $2 billion to $10 billion during the main bull market of 2023-2025. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $994 million in a week, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows; even BlackRock's IBIT joined the "retreat." The report also highlighted at the macro level that the Straits closure has kept oil prices high, essentially eliminating expectations of interest rate cuts. Rising long-term interest rates directly suppress all risk assets, with BTC, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, bearing the brunt of the pressure. Therefore, "we are still in a bear market." From my personal perspective, I largely agree with the report's overall viewpoint, but one detail should not be overlooked—the process of the RC 30D NPC turning positive from a long-term negative value is more important than the value itself. Looking back at January to April 2023, there were also many macroeconomic factors unfavorable to risk markets, such as the Federal Reserve still in its interest rate hike cycle and the successive defaults of traditional US banks; however, in hindsight, that period was precisely when the worst phase had passed. Interest rate hike expectations were driven by a rebound in inflation, which in turn was driven by rising oil prices, which in turn were driven by the Straits closure. The Straits closure is not necessarily insurmountable. If the market has already priced in a bad outcome, then if things subsequently turn around, or if the situation does not deviate from the worst-case scenario, the market will reprice itself. When this rebound occurred, the RC 30D NPC returned from deep negative territory to +2.8 billion USD/month. While this isn't enough to support a major upward trend, it indicates that some funds are already willing to enter the market and position themselves in advance. From -30B to +2.8B, and from +2.8B to +10B, it's the same direction! ------------------------------------------ Each Bitfinex Alpha report is quite long. I usually focus on three things: 1⃣ Key Summary: Pay attention to this week's assessment and key BTC price levels; 2⃣ Market Signals: Fund flows, on-chain data, sentiment analysis, etc.; 3⃣ Macroeconomic Information: Identify the biggest macroeconomic variables and understand how they affect market expectations and liquidity. Interested readers can subscribe to the alpha report for free. It will be sent to your email weekly; highly recommended!