Such a tough spot right now... After nearly 20 days of STH-RP and TMMP hesitating and entangling, we finally have a real death cross (red line crossing below the green line). But honestly, the STH-RP (red line) is almost flat, like a straight line. This means that neither side of the average cost line wants to rotate their bags anymore—hodlers above and below are just not interested in swapping hands. This lines up perfectly with what we pointed out yesterday: “short-term activity” has dropped to rock bottom. Historically, once this death cross forms, BTC price tends to be suppressed by the red line for quite a while (can't break through), and sometimes even dumps to new lows. Yeah, it looks scary on the surface, BUT! The reason I said “tough spot” at the start is that there are some differences from previous cycles in the details. So, what’s different this time? It’s the slope of the STH-RP cross! The steeper the slope, the more aggressive the selling from high-entry bags at a loss, which is why price gets suppressed and can’t break out. This time, though, the slope is basically flat—meaning there’s not that much selling pressure. So, breaking through might not be as hard as before. Of course, STH-RP is still the emotional bull/bear dividing line. As long as price is below STH-RP, short-term bias will lean bearish. How the next chapter unfolds? Only time will tell. (Personally, I think we might see a different script play out this time. 😀)