The crypto market for World Cup predictions has surpassed $2 billion in bets on the winning team as the tournament officially kicks off in Mexico City today, but millions of traders are still divided on which team will lift the trophy. Spain and France are leading with odds of around 16%, while defending champions Argentina are only rated at 9%.
The combined stakes on Polymarket ($1.9 billion) and Kalshi ($132 million) have made this the largest single prediction event in crypto history. Polymarket currently has 328 active World Cup markets and has recorded $66 million in transactions in the last 24 hours alone, with the total fund behind these bets reaching $352.7 million.
Bet on the World Cup winner on Polymarket. Source: PolymarketWorld Cup betting record: $2 billion
Polymarket opened its World Cup champion prediction market in July 2025, allowing traders to participate in predictions nearly a year before the opening match.
Volume exploded as the tournament approached, with $66 million changing hands in just 24 hours. The combined volume of Polymarket and Kalshi set a new record for the largest prediction event in crypto history.
Prediction markets have become a focal point at every major event in 2025, from the US presidential election to the Super Bowl. This World Cup is proving to be the biggest test of crypto betting infrastructure ever.
Spain, France, and the current champion.
Spain has 16.5% and France 16.1%, with both teams XEM by the market as strong contenders . England and Portugal are both around 11%, while Brazil is at 8%.
Defending champions Argentina are only predicted to have a 9% chance of winning, behind both European teams in the second group.
The market doesn't think Argentina has no chance of winning, but two years after their victory in Qatar 2022, crypto investors no longer consider Argentina the strongest team. Any result in the group stage will significantly alter market sentiment.
FIFA is applying blockchain technology.
This World Cup also marks the first time FIFA has officially deployed a blockchain-based prediction infrastructure. ADI Predictstreet, a FIFA partner and supported by Chainlink, is operating a separate prediction marketplace alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.
The world football federation is now also entering the prediction market that the crypto community had previously built.
NOW: Chainlink is powering new @FIFAWorldCup prediction markets for @MyriadMarkets .The opening round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup™ kicks off in just 2 days, predicting match outcomes for the world's largest sporting event today. https://t.co/Tlj374QGJ9 pic.twitter.com/nm5mvLS2CN
— Chainlink (@ Chainlink) June 10, 2026
The tournament will take place over 38 days with a total of 104 matches to find the solution to what $2 billion in collective intelligence has yet to resolve. The market will certainly not remain in equilibrium for long.
