According to TechFlow TechFlow, on June 13th, Alex Thorn, a leading researcher at Galaxy Research, analyzed that the top signal for Bitcoin's current cycle was extremely mild. Only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators were triggered, and the Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to trigger for the first time. The MVRV peak was only 2.29, far lower than the 2.93 to 5.91 of previous cycles. Due to the relatively calm top, the network cost base is 43.7% of its historical high, higher than the 34%, 21%, and 17% of previous cycles, which means the bottom price range has correspondingly increased.
In the baseline scenario, the bottom range for Galaxy is expected to be $40,000 to $46,000, with a deeper correction scenario at $30,000 to $37,000, and a shallower decline scenario where it may stabilize around $51,000 to $54,000. Thorn also warns that the cost base is reflexive, and if a genuine panic sell-off occurs, the bottom could move further down to around $28,000.
On-chain data, according to CryptoQuant monitoring, Bitcoin is currently in a historically low valuation range for a bear market, with a spot price of approximately $59,000, about 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600. Speculative futures and spot demand decreased by a combined 652,000 BTC over the past week, the largest weekly demand contraction since January 2022. The one-year demand indicator also turned negative, indicating that current buying power is weaker than a year ago.
