@BITMAINtech invited me to analyze the value return of the PoW public chain, and share the results with you: PoW Ragnarok.
In the last bear market cycle, the technology gods were still arguing about POW vs POS, but now no one cares about it.
Glancing at the historical time machine, the POW public chain was born in the late 18th to 20th years, and there is no other outstanding work, but POS has been advancing all the way. Who knows the old Grin/Beam/AE?
PoW Market Share
PoS talents come out in large numbers, the largest successor of the PoW camp defected, and there is no longer any resistance, the data does not lie:
1. After the ICO bubble burst, BTC's market share returned to 60% all the way to the end of the bear market; after the thunderstorm of the famous long bull of Western institutions, BTC's market share has always hovered at 40%, and the total market value of the remaining POW public chains is only 5%.
2. The ETH/ BTC bear market will return to 0.02-0.04. After the actual EVM paradigm breaks out, the range will move up by 0.06-0.08.
Economic Output PoW vs PoS
1. For the top ten PoW public chains, the daily mining output of the younger brothers except bitcoin is about 100 BTC. At the beginning of 24, BTC was halved again, and the daily output of the PoW camp fell to 500-600 BTC.
2. Looking back at the top ten PoS public chains, although Staking revenue is currently only half of PoW, the distribution is smooth. At the same time, there are a lot of talents in the recruitment camp. It is expected that the daily output will surpass PoW in the middle of next year.
If things go on like this, where will PoW mining machine manufacturers/mine pools/miners go.
Wait But Why? the Demise of PoW
The value of the public chain does not lie in the technology. The richness and prosperity of the ecology determine the market value of the public chain. In the frenzy of EVM paradigm innovation, the PoW public chain is collectively aphasia in the Defi/NFT/Gamefi scenario, and PoW is most proud of its decentralized anti-censorship , it seems that there is only an advantage in payment (Payment), other than that, users don't care about the suspension of SOL, the surname of BSC Zhao, and the reorganization of Polygon.
And ETH to POS, cheer for deflation.
Savior of PoW?
The frenzy of innovation in the EVM paradigm lies in the fact that the public chain has a Turing-complete virtual machine. If it is EVM compatible, the ETH infrastructure can be reused. It is even more willing to kneel and lick the V gods, engage in OPZKL2, compete for the orthodoxy of the ether, join the etheric religion, VC Financing is available.
On the other hand, ETC/CFX among the top ten in the market value of the PoW camp has an EVM foundation. Among them, the market value of ETC is high, and the TVL of Defi is small.
Will the PoW plan be released? Who will save?
