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[market analysis]
March 21, 2023
BTC price: $28000
MVRV: 1.41
Market: The pancake fluctuates at a short-term high level, and the cottage falls
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background
Last week, Arbitrum, the leading Layer 2 project, announced that it would send AirDrop to eligible members of the community, which caused a stir in the market. Hello. It is worth noting that the AirDrop claim will be open at 8:00 pm on March 23 (ETH Mainnet blockchain height 16890400).
Regarding the price of ARB after it goes online, it is what everyone is most concerned about. Today we will look at the unit price of ARB from different angles.
token economy
The total initial supply of the Arbitrum token ARB is 10 billion pieces, with a maximum inflation rate of 2% per year.
11.62% of the initial total supply will be AirDrop to Arbitrum users, and 1.13% will be AirDrop to the DAO treasury that builds applications on Arbitrum. The AirDrop snapshot time is February 6.
The current known circulation of tokens is the AirDrop part (1.62%+1.13%=12.75%) 1.275 billion pieces.
The following is the corresponding unlocking schedule. The release and distribution schedule of DAO tokens is subject to the approval of the governance DAO through the voting process.
Ecosystem comparison
When it comes to Arbitrum, we have to take out its competing product, Optimism.
From the ranking of Defillama, we can see that the current number of protocols on Arbitrum is 243 , and that on Optimism is 117 , twice that of the OP ecosystem.
From L2beat's ranking, we can see that Arbitrum's TVL is also twice that of OP.
After the AirDrop rules came out, the daily active addresses on Arbitrum are still about twice that of OP, and the daily trading volume of Arbitrum is much more than that of OP.
In terms of transaction fees, Arbitrum also has an advantage over OP.
price estimate
The data comes from March 20, 2023. The circulating market value of OP is 0.84B. According to the above indicators, it is speculated that the circulating market value of ARB should be twice that of OP, so the unit price of ARB should be around 1.32 .
It is not ruled out that the impact of the lower-than-expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at 2 am on March 23 (good), coupled with the market's fomo sentiment, it is normal for CEX prices to be higher than $5.
CEX launch time
The following are the opening times for deposit and trading of each CEX. You can receive the AirDrop and decide where to go.
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