Yesterday, Bitcoin’s trend was fully reflected in the volatility of the crypto market.
After a period of intense volatility, Bitcoin prices fell to $34,471 in one day, but then quickly recovered. The OKX Ouyi market shows that Bitcoin has risen rapidly since early this morning. Bitcoin price peaked at $37,867, just shy of the $38,000 mark.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has gained 6.3%. This is another attack on $38,000 after briefly breaking through $38,000 last week.
The ETF window period is about to end, will the benefits be realized?
Over the past week, every surge has been accompanied by major positive news (whether the news is true or false).
In the early morning of November 9, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote that the Bitcoin ETF has officially entered the approval window. Between November 9 and November 17, the SEC could theoretically approve any of the 12 existing spot Bitcoin ETF applications during this time. “I released new research today. We continue to believe there is a 90% chance of approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF application by January 10th.”
This good news spurred a rapid rise in the crypto market, with Bitcoin successively breaking through three integer levels of $36,000, $37,000, and $38,000.
On November 14, U.S. CPI data was released. The annual rate of core CPI in October was 4%, which was expected to be 4.1% and the previous value was 4.1%. U.S. CPI fell below expectations and hit its lowest level since July. The improvement in CPI data has further increased market expectations for a halt to interest rate hikes. The improvement in fundamentals has also caused some fluctuations in the encryption market.
Yesterday evening, we did not see any major developments in ETFs or economic data. However, the market's sudden rise and fall will still occur inadvertently.
While Bitcoin is performing well, Ethereum is still lagging behind.
The OKX market shows that Ethereum is not close to $2,100 after yesterday's overnight rise. When the last "good news" appeared, Ethereum rose sharply and reached $2,136.
Previously, the strong performance of Ethereum was mainly affected by BlackRock - disclosure document information shows that BlackRock registered the Ethereum Trust in Delaware, and the registered entity is called ISHARES ETHEREUM TRUST. This benefit that belongs to Ethereum has given Ethereum a more advantageous increase.
Today, the exchange rate shows that ETH/BTC has gradually declined again, and the positive momentum of BlackRock ETF has not continued to this day.
Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is hovering around 0.55, down 5.6% from the high when “ETF is good”.
SOL is one of the most noteworthy tokens in this rally , currently trading above $65 and as high as $67.13. SOL has had an exceptionally strong run of late, rising 66% since November and now trading at its highest price since May 2022.
According to data from Coinglass, $145 million was wiped out in the crypto market in the past 24 hours. Among them, short positions were liquidated at US$111 million, and long orders were liquidated at US$145 million. The liquidation of BTC was US$60.16 million, the liquidation of ETH was US$20 million, and the liquidation of SOL was US$14.99 million.
The end of the Mavericks or the beginning of the bull market?
The rise in the early hours of this morning was not only due to the lack of news stimulation, but on the contrary, there was even some unpositive news in the market.
At night Beijing time, the SEC delayed Hashdex ’s application to convert its existing Bitcoin futures ETF into a spot ETF. The SEC has also delayed Grayscale’s attempt to launch an Ethereum futures ETF. This means another potential benefit has been postponed. The market has lost two pieces of good news that may be "theoretically implemented" in the short term.
But judging from on-chain data, market sentiment is still extremely strong. On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC reached 4.5 million, a record high. In addition, the HODL Bitcoin data chart over 1 year shows that the total amount of BTC that has not moved in at least 1 year has exceeded 70% for the first time.
Charlie Morris, founder of investment advisory firm ByteTree, said in today’s market report that Bitcoin is becoming mainstream, the bear market is over, and the “great times” are here. ByteTree highlighted BTC’s strong performance compared to traditional assets such as U.S. stock indices and gold, which are also rising. Morris noted that Bitcoin’s trend is not only strong in U.S. dollar terms, but also relative to other major assets. This is important for institutional adoption because they won't buy alternatives unless there's a little extra return. Morris also noted that Altcoin are strengthening as market breadth improves after two years of a brutal Crypto Winter .
Peter Brandt, an early pioneer in the field of commodities hedge funds, posted an article on social media stating that Bitcoin prices may continue to rise. He drew a head and shoulders bottom pattern for Bitcoin. According to his prediction, the periodic bottom target of Bitcoin is $35,135 and the high target is $41,341. If the rectangular pattern on the chart is confirmed, Bitcoin price could hit $43,000.
Of course, some investors have warned that the current crypto market sentiment has become overheated .
Filbfilb, co-founder of DecenTrader, believes that Bitcoin could reach $46,000 to $48,000 by the time of the halving, but before that, there may be a correction. In addition, Glassnode data also showed that the number of whale wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins fell to the lowest level in nearly a month, indicating that some large investors may have sold during the recent strong market.
Judging from the "techniques" of "carving a boat to find a sword" and finding patterns in history, whenever the crypto market enters a bull-bear transition cycle, we usually usher in a "small bull market" first, and only after a sharp correction can we really buy into a new bull market cycle. And if I look back at the history of the crypto market this year, I am also deeply confused - where have we reached in this bull-bear cycle?
