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比特币昨日傍晚再度刷新今年最高纪录触及38,450 美元，不过之后卖压涌现，当前又回落到3.8 万美元之下、ETH 则是力守2000 美元大关。
现在是什么阶段
Personally, I think it is a bottoming movement of the copycats. The two-year brutal decline has caused the copycats to fall horribly. A large-scale bottoming movement approaching the turning period is constantly unfolding. That is, the Altcoin will basically continue to rise. The historical low is the starting point and rebounds three to five times! Then either pass the baton to the Shanzhai Hot Sector, or hand over the command to Bitcoin to continue to develop!
Ethereum formed a "golden cross" pattern on the 1-week time frame, the second such signal this year. While the long-term effects could be very positive if history repeats itself, there are reasons to temper expectations.
还会不会有黑天鹅？
1. Black swan events that occur before the halving or during the bull market will not interrupt the bull market process.
2.牛市末期的黑天鹅事件会终结牛市，甚至会直接进入熊市
3. Black swans in the encryption market include regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks, global macro events, and Ponzi model collapse. The historical declines are more than 40% and last for more than one month.
4. Black swan events occur almost every year. Black swan events in the next year may be related to traditional financial macro events (debt crisis, banking problems, economic slowdown)
5. To deal with black swan events, you need to understand the currency cycle, asset diversification (US stocks, crypto, OTC cash flow), and black swan time points that need to be paid attention to when hedging risks through options or hedging.
1. In March before the halving, the 312 incident and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank occurred. The stock market fluctuated greatly in March, and several financial crises occurred in this month.
2. May after the halving, the 519 and LUNA incidents occurred in history in May, and after the halving, it was a key node in the Fed’s interest rate cut game.
3. One year after the halving, from May to July 2025, the historical 9.4 and 5.19 events that interrupted the bull market process due to policies all occurred one year after the halving. Before that, the market generally If there are signs of overzealousness, the government will intervene
4. From November to December of 2025, there are several time nodes for the end of the bull market, such as the 2017 historical high, the 2021 historical high, and the 2022 FTX incident. It mainly depends on whether Bitcoin has made significant progress in the traditional financial market, such as the previous The bear market started twice because of the CME Bitcoin futures contract and the Bitcoin futures ETF.
比特币ETF 将于1 月10 日获得批准
ETF 专家Erich Balchunas最近在X（前Twitter）上发表了一篇文章，分享了他对比特币ETF 获得批准的可能性的看法。
Balchunas 在1 月10 日之前获得SEC 批准的可能性为90%，这一数字几个月来一直保持不变。
Balchunas 强调，虽然关于具体日期和时间表的争论仍然存在，但SEC 和发行人正在幕后努力工作，让ETF 为这一周期做好准备，不顾之前的怀疑。
和许多分析师预测的那样，无论是这些投资产品预期获得批准之前还是之后，比特币都有望在未来几个月内实现潜在突破。
在这种背景下，比特币必须维持在35,000 美元关键支撑位之上。无论是在现货ETF 获批之前还是之后，该标志都是未来收益的Threshold。
BlackRock met again with the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Division of Trading and Markets and presented them with a "revised" mock-up design based on staff comments at the Nov. 20 meeting. In the new model, offshore Physical market makers obtain Bitcoin from Coinbase and advance cash to U.S.-registered broker-dealers (who are not allowed to touch Bitcoin).
还有一个小道的消息是CIONBASE股票大涨，我的估计是大概率通过了，大概率还是由cionbase托管！
These 4 passwords will be ambushed in batches even if you press your head, so you must hold them firmly!
CHR: 0.13, a potential public chain, a must for the bull market.
STX: 0.78, there will be a big update at the end of the year, BTC is the ecological leader, and the correction is ambush.
TON: 2.4, you can buy it except Binance, Telegram public chain, large traffic.
BNX: 0.29. It has been a long time coming. Binance is planning to release the IGO platform. SSV, which I have been recommending everyone to deploy at the beginning of the month, has already increased by 75%.
