Bitcoin has entered the long-short game stage. Now there are obvious differences between the multi-military and the air force at this position. There was a false breakthrough at 20 o'clock last night, and then it was immediately smashed back to its original shape, so now the position of 71000 has become crucial. , if it can be pulled back to stand firm again, many armies will win . If it cannot be pulled back in the short term, then the next step will be the opportunity for the Air Force, so at the critical moment, the contract will be cautious
Institutions have a net long position and hedge funds have a net short position. If there are long funds in the market, there must be short funds. This is relatively normal. For hedge funds, some funds are for hedging and some funds are for speculation.
However, the recent position situation shows that the game of long and short funds has intensified, and major fluctuations may be brewing. We know that since BlackRock applied for an ETF in mid-2023, the market has been bullish, especially BTC. Therefore, the scale of the derivatives market began to expand at an accelerated pace. After the adoption of the ETF in January 2024, a large number of short funds were liquidated (possibly due to the liquidation of funds for "selling news"). After a wave of adjustments, as ETF institutions represented by BlackRock and Fidelity Group began to buy, the price of BTC soared, and the derivatives market began to grow rapidly again.
The current scale of the derivatives market has long exceeded the peak of the bull market in 2021. Especially recently, the Bitcoin futures positions of both long and short funds have risen "steeply". This is one of the reasons why BTC has been so momentum in recent times. One (leverage and emotion driven)
Judging from the latest news, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in May is close to 90% , which means that the Federal Reserve still has confidence and believes that the economic situation is better. In some sense, this also gives Wall Street the confidence to continue to push up the capital market. At present, bull funds still have the advantage
If you have a profitable position at the copycat level, you must at least remember to pay out the principal. Don’t be reluctant to part with the principal. Only when the principal is out can you have more opportunities to participate.
Let me record some of my recent observations.
The last bull market started with DeFI and ended with the Metaverse . Let us see that the application of blockchain can start from decentralized financial protocols such as AMM and staking mining, and even lead to the debate between light protocols and fat applications. discuss
Last year, the Inscription protocol derived from the Ordinals protocol activated the encryption market's imagination on whether the Bitcoin network can play the role of asset issuance and application. In a certain sense, this is the calf of the Inscription market . Otherwise, last year would have been a dead market.
Take a look at the three major theme sections in this round
I think it's AI/RWA/Depin
Embrace the mainstream concepts in the current global economy, whether it is the introduction of real-world assets, participation in AI or cross-border Internet of Things, it is a big story, and native cryptocurrencies are beginning to become practical.
Looking at the re-emergence of Solana, it is definitely not just Meme emotions, but Depin. The Internet of Things combined with blockchain, imagination is strong
Let’s talk about Meme
The popularity of Meme is not a prelude to the market, but an interlude. But it’s hard to come by, and it’s not worth spending too much time on. If you see someone who is all-in and says we’re a Meme community, celebrities and lKOL teaming up to promote, just stay away. Looking at the essence, the nature of today’s Dogecoin is very special and cannot be regarded as a general Meme. The imagination and speculation related to Xpayment have always made it difficult to ignore
Pure native blockchain innovation, the three major themes are Layer 2, module blockchain and Restaking. This is the sector where VC has invested the most in the past three years . This seems to be a classic page in the native blockchain innovation sector. , in today’s general environment, we may be in a relatively passive market position.
Of course, L2, the most powerful one, has begun to adopt an operation-driven approach. Whether it is Blast in Ethereum or Merlin in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it is difficult to ignore and become an intermediate force.
Web3 application section
Many people were originally not optimistic about the application themes that have transitioned from Web2.0, such as GameFi, Social Fi and even video live streaming, thinking that these so-called Web3 are just Web2+Tokenniz. Now they are impacted by AI and depin themes, which is even more embarrassing. In the next step of Web3 You may be even more ignored in the sector, which makes people less interested. The road ahead for these projects is not easy
The independent bull market in the crypto industry has created multiple small cycles, and this special cycle will always exist . However, the general cycle of the crypto market cycle will inevitably merge into the global mainstream financial market, be closely integrated with the new round of technological innovation narratives, and interoperate with mainstream financial assets. this is a new era
(I hope everyone will think more about the last paragraph and understand it)
Create a high-quality circle
Mainly spot goods
I will share some content: conditions as shown below:
The overall position is ≥5,000u. If you want to join, scan the QR code below!
(The operating space for hundreds and thousands is too small. If you don’t have one, you can send a private message. You can also join if you pass the screening.) Purpose: To become bigger and stronger, create greater glory and turn around in the next bull market!
The article ends here. I will do a more detailed analysis in the communication group. If you want to join my circle, please contact me directly via WeChat below!
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