Now I found an interesting phenomenon, that is, whenever there is a relatively large market correction, I will receive a warning in the background. I don't know if it is because some of the cuties have nothing to do because they have lost money, or because some of the truths I said in the article have irritated some people's sensitive nerves?
In the past, people reported the content of my articles, and I didn’t say anything about that, but now even the introduction has to be reported?
The previous profile said: Focus on blockchain knowledge sharing (this profile has been used for almost 2 years)
I added a new introduction yesterday, which is: Keep learning, keep improving, and stay patient.
That should be enough, right?
The ups and downs of the market are actually a very normal phenomenon, especially in this field, where a fluctuation of more than ten points in a single day is nothing. Besides, BTC has risen from $15,000 to $74,000, and many people have chosen to wait and see, and have been looking forward to a big bull market. Then in the past month or so, BTC has only adjusted from $74,000 to $65,000. With only such a small correction, some people can't sit still, and some even directly shouted the slogan of "Run away when the bears come."
We are just getting started. We are still in the middle of the bull market (I guess), and the core of the bull market is speculation. Since it is speculation, there will be interference from various information or smoke bombs. For ordinary people, the best choice is to watch the show quietly and hold on to the cake in your hand. Moreover, don't try to find too many so-called reasons for the rise and fall, and there are too many reasons to find, such as market sentiment, regulatory development, macroeconomic conditions, international trends, etc. The more you find reasons for yourself, the more complicated and unpredictable some things will become.
My original plan remains unchanged: I will consider selling 30% of my stocks in the 100,000-120,000 range. The remaining 70% of my stocks will be equivalent to zero cost at that time, and then I will sell them in batches or not at all depending on the situation. I will ignore any market fluctuations during this period. To take a step back, if this round of bull market ends before the stocks reach 100,000, then I will keep the stocks until the next round, which will not have any impact on me. As for the new altcoins (FET, SOL, AVAX, ARB, CHZ) I held last year, half of them were sold when they doubled before, and the remaining ones are equivalent to zero cost. I will clear all of them at different time points later. Of course, everyone's situation is different, and my approach may not be suitable for everyone.
As for people who still leave messages asking me what they should buy, my answer is:
First, it is recommended that you read all the articles in the Huali Huawai Methodology series column first, and find the ideas and methods that suit you.
Second, apart from Bingzi Ethereum and the leading projects in the track that you personally think the most, I will not make any recommendations from a trading perspective on other projects.
Third, don’t ask me to analyze the project for you, just like I won’t eat for you. I suggest you fill out the “Project Research Template” that Hualihuawai compiled before and complete the scoring.
Whenever the market has a relatively large correction, my personal advice is generally:
If you still have positions, then for projects that you were optimistic about but didn’t have the opportunity to get on board before, you can now boldly add a little position (increasing positions ≠ All In), don’t hesitate.
If your position is already fully invested, just continue to be patient.
Then, do what you need to do, such as going out to get some sun, looking at pretty girls, etc., instead of staring at the K-line. If you are more of a homebody, then continue to learn, such as reading more articles by Huali Huawai. And if you feel depressed, read more chicken soup to boost your confidence.
So, next, I will tell you the story of a legendary trader. The protagonist of our story today is an anonymous trader with the online name GCR.
GCR is a representative trader in the crypto space. Recently, I found that many people (including some KOLs) have started discussing him. And from some recent discussions, we can also find that GCR is still a very active person. For example, last month (March), GCR bought the original image NFT of WIF (Woolen Hat Dog) for 4.33 million US dollars, which shocked many people.
The most well-known story about GCR should have happened in 2021, when he began to be bearish on the market and short some Altcoin at the top of the market, making a lot of money from it. He was also dubbed the "short master" and jumped from an anonymous trader to a legendary trader.
After GCR became an internet celebrity because he seemed to know everything about trading trends, many people began to dig up his historical tweets (he currently has two Twitter accounts). Some people even compiled a "GCR's 30 Trading Principles" based on his historical remarks, which you should be able to search directly on Google.
During 2021-2022, GCR has been active in the FTX exchange and has been ranked among the top traders in FTX. His earnings at the time surpassed many other traders in the market. But GCR has always remained anonymous. He has also publicly stated on social platforms that he has no background and started from scratch with $1,000. He accumulated wealth through trading in the crypto market. It is said that his highest assets have reached $124 million.
As the entire crypto market began to enter the peak of the bull market at that time (2021), GCR also reached the peak of his fame due to his "contrarian investment". Let's take a look at some of his classic cases at that time:
Publicly short DOGE in May 2021
Public short of SHIB in November 2021
Publicly short LUNA before the 2022 LUNA crash
What is more interesting about GCR is that he seems to like to share some of his ideas publicly. Although his situation and strategy may not be suitable for you, when it comes to trading, we should not directly apply other people's specific methods, but understand his ideas more and use them to improve our own trading strategies.
The following are some of GCR’s personal opinions expressed on Twitter earlier (some of my notes are in brackets):
1/ Those who chase two rabbits will not catch either one. 2023/3/18 (Telling you that you should focus on only one thing at a time, this sentence is currently also GCR's personal signature)
2/ Many people fail because they do the exact opposite. I continue to hold a large spot BTC + ETH position for now because I believe we bottomed out last November and I remain bullish on the future. 2/5/2023 (In the long run, long-term holders can easily outperform frequent traders)
3/ Wealth is not wealth before it is realized. When trading volume > market value, the parabola is usually in the final stage. 2023/1/27 (Put your money in the bag and tell you a time to take profits)
4/ A project that takes a long time to build may create the worst token economics in the world, but don't ignore the possibility of such a token in a bull market. 2023/1/13 (For example, I used ARKM during the platform's internal testing. This project was a project that not many people needed at the time. I remember that when the coin was airdropped last year, the platform also airdropped me several thousand coins because I had used it several times. Their tokens were not popular after they went online last year. It was not until March this year when they soared more than 10 times that people noticed them)
5/ I have been telling people for weeks that the biggest threat to any successful project is its own success. Because success breeds imitation, and this is a profit-driven industry that will ruthlessly turn to original derivatives, chasing higher upside. 2022/4/8
6/ In the absence of valuation reasons, integers are obvious convergence points for reflexive assets (i.e., either potential support points or resistance points), and we need to respect the Schelling point (a tacit understanding reached between strangers without any communication). 2022/3/23 (Tell you that on the crypto chart, integer prices often represent this psychological area for people)
7/ Pairs Trading (also known as hedging trading, this neutral strategy will short and long at the same time) is an art that has been discarded in the bull market, but if you use this art well, you will win. 2022/9/12
8/ When news affects prices, market participants usually focus on whether the news is true or false. However, the way the market reacts to the news actually provides a lot of information about the biases (bullish or bearish) and emotions of market participants, which is more important than the authenticity of the headline or content of the news. 2021/5/22 (If there is a major news event, you can first see how the market reacts to it. If the market is severely shaken by incredible news, it makes sense to short or consider buying promising tokens in depth. For example, the market's pullback in the past few days is actually a good opportunity for many current currencies to get on board)
The above are just a few randomly selected historical tweets of GCR and translated. Friends who are interested in the original text can find it by date.
Next, let’s use some on-chain tools to explore which tokens GCR currently purchases/holds.
Currently, GCR has a public wallet address. As of the time of writing this article, the assets held in this wallet are $128,000. However, according to the on-chain data, the highest assets in this wallet have reached $41 million (on March 8, 2023). And this should be just one of his many wallets. As shown in the figure below.
Judging from the transaction behavior, this wallet has become more active since March 2023, and it is used by almost all exchanges you know. As shown in the figure below.
Let's continue to look at the largest holdings of the wallet's current portfolio. The following list is for learning purposes only and is not intended as any investment advice.
As can be seen from the above picture, the currencies currently held in the wallet with a value greater than $1,000 include: COW, PUSSY, INXT, MILADY, and ENA.
The first one is CoW (COW)
The core product currently launched by CoW DAO is CowSwap, an AMM DEX that protects liquidity providers (LPs) from MEV. The platform also uses a mechanism called "Coincidence of Wants" (CoW) to directly match overlapping orders.
The working principle of CoW AMM is roughly as follows:
- Liquidity providers deposit tokens into protected CoW AMM liquidity pools
- This liquidity is available to CoW swap traders, who can access it like any other source of liquidity
- Whenever there is an arbitrage opportunity, the solver will bid to rebalance the CoW AMM pool
- The solver that provides the most surplus to the pool will win the right to rebalance the pool
- Designed to capture LP’s arbitrage value and set up this MEV robot to eliminate LVR
To put it simply, most AMMs currently allow arbitrageurs to make money at the expense of LPs, but CoW AMMs protect funds for LPs.
Currently, GCR holds 180,000 COW tokens, with a current value of approximately $43,000. This coin was transferred from another 0xf01 wallet a year ago (January 2023), and its value at the time was $12,000. As shown in the figure below.
The second one is Pussy Financial (PUSSY)
Pussy is a MemeCoin on the Ethereum chain. As shown in the figure below.
Currently, GCR holds 3.9 billion COW tokens, with a current value of approximately $36,000. This coin was also transferred from another 0x2DA wallet a year ago (January 8, 2023), and was worth $7,800 at the time. As shown in the figure below.
Here we only analyze the above two currencies. The analysis methods and ideas are the same. You can also try to check the remaining currencies yourself.
Past transactions sometimes don’t mean much. Next, let’s take a look at what transactions GCR has made recently.
We only retrieved the interaction of GCR wallet from January this year to now, which mainly intersects with several large CEX and DEX, and also intersects with several other wallet addresses. We can basically get a rough idea from the figure below.
For example, he recently withdrew $5.52 million from Binance to this wallet address. Then there are many intersections with Foundation (an NFT platform). In addition, he has also used Multisender (Multisender is a batch transfer platform that can distribute your funds to thousands of wallet addresses at one time).
Let’s take a look at the wallet’s recent basic on-chain transaction records (but only transactions greater than $1,000 are listed), as shown below:
From the chart, we can see that in the past month, GCR has mainly participated in various NFT transactions in the Foundation, and then bought 3,850 ENA tokens.
Of course, it seems that GCR is indeed more protective of personal privacy. He will toss and transfer assets through different wallet addresses. For example, at the beginning of this month (April 4), he also transferred 314 ETH to Binance through a 0xF06 sub-wallet. As shown in the figure below.
All the above data is tracked through the Arkham platform. Interested partners can also study it on their own:
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/signup?a=senlonlee
Okay, we will share the content of this issue here for now. This is also the 441st article updated by Huali Huawai. We will continue to bring you more related sharing in the future. Interested friends can check and learn more content through Huali Huawai.
Note: The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, and is only for popular science learning and communication purposes. All projects mentioned in the title or text have no interest relationship with Hualihuawai, and do not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is an extremely high-risk area, please treat it rationally, improve risk prevention awareness, and abide by the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where you are located!
