The general direction this year is definitely an upward trend, so when we are laying out, we should be as bold as possible, but we must also control our positions! Based on the experience of last year and the year before, a good trend requires time to wait. Don’t think that you can be satisfied with a wave of trends. In many cases, the more you want to get, the more likely you are to be repeatedly worn out. Therefore, based on historical experience, set your own profit goals, and execute your own operations when you reach the goal. You don’t need to sell at the highest point, nor do you need to buy at the lowest point. As long as you achieve your goals, it is a good operation mode!
Judging from the time of each previous wave of adjustments of BTC, it usually takes about two months.
If we follow this timeline, the big trend should not come until mid-June. The longer the bottom friction lasts, the more complete the washout will be. The higher the turnover rate of chips, the higher the future pull-up space and profit will be! Therefore, adjustment is not a bad thing. To some extent, if you can grasp it well, you can get enough chips at a very low cost! When waiting for the trend to come, we can get the benefits we want!
So, continue to wait patiently! This period is a good time to buy altcoins in batches. They are basically at a relatively low position. Continuous purchases, including Ethereum, are not a big problem!
I personally think that 60,000 is the low point of the correction. The market trend since the weekend has been good, with BTC and ETH breaking through 65,500 and 3130 respectively, basically announcing the end of the short-term correction trend.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 4h K-line shows a composite head and shoulders bottom trend. The green one is a large head and shoulders bottom, which has broken through the neckline. The head of the green head and shoulders bottom is composed of a small head and shoulders bottom. Combined with the bullish technical indicators at the 4h level and the increased trading volume at the time of the breakthrough, this head and shoulders bottom should be determined to be valid. It can also be seen from the red line in the figure below that BTC has a sideways retracement confirmation process after breaking through 6.55w.
The right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom is a right triangle. A breakthrough with large volume and bullish technical indicators should be confirmed as an effective breakthrough. Therefore, based on these short-term patterns, as long as it does not fall back below 6.55w, we should continue to be bullish on BTC. According to the equal distance measurement of the head and shoulders bottom, the target position should be above 7w1. At the current price, the profit and loss ratio is still good.
ETH also has a 4h level head and shoulders bottom structure, with the neckline at 3130, which coincides with the Fibonacci position. Therefore, above 3130, ETH should also remain bullish. If it can break through the previous high of around 3300, it can continue to rise to 3600+.
The 7-day weighted funding rate reflects that the bearish sentiment is still very strong and panic-stricken.
Judging from the contract open interest, as prices rise, both the price and volume increase, and there are no unfavorable signals.
Last week may have been the week with the lowest sentiment this year (mainly due to the sharp drop in altcoin prices), but the worst is over and prices are currently above the support line, keeping optimism high.
This month's monthly K opened at around 7.13w, which is also the upper edge of the rectangular range for more than a month, and is also near the target position of the aforementioned head and shoulders bottom rebound.
It is expected that the rest of this month will be in a state of slow fluctuation and rise, and the monthly K line will close with a negative line. In May, it will challenge the upper edge of the fluctuation range again. If it can break through, a new high can be expected, with a low of 8w+ and a high of 9w+, which are all worth looking forward to. If it cannot break through, it will maintain a long-term fluctuation between 6w-7w1, and there will be a few months of garbage time.
Recently, I have seen many people say that there will be no more copycat season from now on.
I personally think that there will be a copycat season in every round. The only difference is the time of launch. It is possible that the time window for the copycats to launch collectively will become shorter and shorter in the future, and most of them will be short and fast waves.
Just like the big blue chips and low-cap stocks in the stock market. At the start of each bull market, the big blue chips rise first, and when they stop rising, the profit funds begin to move to small and medium-cap stocks. I won’t analyze the reasons behind this in detail, but this is something that has happened repeatedly in various markets in various countries around the world in the past. The crypto is no exception.
It should be noted that during the last multiple price test, many Altcoin did not fall to their previous lows. Instead, the decline of Altcoin was much smaller than expected.
It has basically stabilized, and Altcoin are no longer oversold. When Altcoin start to stop falling, the correction of a wave of market conditions is basically in the final stage.
Therefore, you don’t need to be too pessimistic about Altcoin. Since you have chosen to hold altcoins, you must face the huge fluctuations that you should bear. As long as Altcoin have no leverage, everything is possible. You can expect a new rise.
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