This article comes from @sdcrypto123 Twitter:
Today's industry has undergone several visible changes:
(1) The number of people engaging in arbitrage and profiteering has increased significantly
In the past, everyone could only hold their own coins and speculate on them in the secondary market, but now about 1/5 of the users have switched to arbitrage and profiteering in the semi-primary market to get coins. This group of people has a characteristic that they are relatively averse to buying coins in the secondary market. They can profit, fight (inscriptions), donate (memes), and pledge, but they just don’t buy. If this ratio increases accordingly, it means that there will be fewer people buying coins in the secondary market, and many more people who want to unload at a low cost.
(2) Hotspot dispersion
Restake, inscription, NFT, Solana ecology, modularization, second-layer network. There is no hot spot in this bull market that everyone participates in. It is very different from the past. Funds and users have no joint efforts at all. Everyone plays their own games in a scattered and disorderly manner. The reason for this is first of all the development of the industry. The industry has become so large and wide that it is basically impossible for one person to play all the industries.
The second is that the industry lacks truly revolutionary products that can re-ignite imagination. It is more of an improved bull market (micro-innovation based on previous innovations).
(3) The market value of too many projects is overdrawn prematurely
Nowadays, everyone has their own judgment on what projects are good and what projects are just bragging, and it is difficult to buy good and cheap things. For example, Ethereum’s two second-layer networks, OP and ARB, have reached their peak as soon as they debuted. The current price is basically the same as when they were first launched 1-2 years ago, and even ARB is lower than the price when it was launched.
Good things are not cheap, and good things and making money are two different things
(4) Funds did not flow into the crypto
In the past, institutions in the investment industry were all knowledgeable people. In addition to understanding BTC, they also understood Ethereum . In addition to understanding Ethereum, they would also actively invest in various innovative coins.
But this time is different. After the ETF , the funds invested in BTC are not circulating directly on the chain, but remain in other markets thousands of miles away. These funds only circulate in BTC, and have basically no interest in innovative coins or investments outside of BTC.
Put it this way: The institutions that entered in the last two rounds all understood the industry and brought money to invest in the industry, but many of the new institutions that entered this round are only interested in BTC (as a hedging configuration).
Therefore, whether Ethereum can successfully pass the ETF this year is actually very important. It determines whether it can have a large amount of new funds investing in it. If there is no ETF, it will not be easy to violently push up the market value and unit price of Ethereum by relying on the existing institutions in the market.
(5) Extremely intensified competition
The intensified competition is manifested in two aspects: one is that there are a lot of new competitors, and the other is that the new competitors are very strong. In 2023, when on-chain derivatives and restake just showed signs of emerging, a large number of competitors swarmed in. This year, many situations that go against past experience have occurred: the track is getting bigger, but the share of early players with advantages is shrinking. This situation can be said to occur in every track at the same time, not just derivatives. The result of this change is: if you buy the boss and hold the boss, the price will not necessarily rise smoothly and significantly, because the market share and imagination have not risen accordingly, and it is even possible that the status will become shaky under the pressure of some new competitors.
This change in the industry is one cycle faster than I expected. I originally thought that it would not truly arrive until this cycle was over, but I didn’t expect that we are already at this moment.
Look up at the stars, but also keep your feet on the ground; have dreams, but also respect reality.
In such a new development cycle (transition from the bonus period to the stable development period), each person's wisdom needs to be tested. If it is handled well and adjusted well, the wealth in the bonus period can continue to grow smoothly (but it will become slower); if it is not handled well, or the old logic is still used to deal with future investment and speculation, the profit may be gradually given up, and a wealth daydream that has lasted for many years may be realized.
The adjustment I made to myself in this bull market is: after half a year, I will try to lower my expectations and increase the proportion of my positions reduced.
