Viewpoint: In the period of liquidity shortage, wait patiently for the "water" to come

Many people have felt the biting cold recently, and many people in the industry have begun to doubt whether we are still in a bull market. The main reasons for this feeling should be the cottage market with more declines than increases, the weak opening of new coins, and the confusion of not seeing hot sectors. But looking at $BTC which is still fluctuating between 62K-65K, it seems that the bull market is still there. Ultimately, the root cause of this situation is - shortage of liquidity. That is, after the BTC ETF was opened for a while, the market has not welcomed other fresh blood. As heavyweight new altcoins continue to enter the market, the industry cannot reach a consensus on the hot sectors and each plays its own game, resulting in further dilution of liquidity. Why are so many people eyeing Binance? Because Binance has the best spot liquidity in the current crypto market. But when Binance's secondary listings perform poorly after new listings, it means that the market liquidity is really very poor, and the performance of other new listings can only be worse. The sudden rise of Meme tokens in this cycle is largely a rebellion of retail investors against the existing power class in the crypto. Anyway, you guys are all here to suck liquidity and can't reach a consensus. You can't even come up with a decent big Ponzi narrative, so why don't you just play the 100% circulating Meme. How much money comes in, how many people play, and how the chips are. I would rather play PvP simply and roughly than accept the dull knife cutting meat secretly. Now, the liquidity of blue-chip stocks in the market is even less. What should we do? Boil and wait for water to come The general environment of the lack of liquidity in the crypto is the lack of global liquidity caused by the delay in the US dollar interest rate cut. Although cryptocurrencies are known as decentralized and BTC is known as digital gold, they are still financial risk assets at this stage. The Altcoin are even more like bubbles built on risk assets. The narrative is actually still very fragile and will inevitably be affected by the big economic cycle. It is not possible to form its own line for the time being. Looking back at the big bull market of 2020-2021, in addition to the awesome Ponzi concepts such as Defi, what is more important is the flooding of money, with huge amounts of funds entering the market. Both retail investors and institutions are desperately trying to get more water, and at that time, risky assets are the buckets for catching water. The more risky assets you have, the more water you get. Even without an ETF, BTC has become one of the targets of mainstream financial institutions in the United States, after all, it can be speculated. The overflowing funds went to the copycats, creating a copycat bull market. When will the water come? In the short term, @CryptoHayes mentioned the Quarterly Refinancing Announcement (QRA) that is expected to be released by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on May 1. Hayes detailed some of the fiscal decisions that Yellen may make, which he believes will re-accelerate the development of the cryptocurrency market. “As expected, tax revenues added about $200 billion to the Treasury General Account (TGA). Forget the Fed’s 2024 second quarter meeting in May. The refund announcement will be next week. What game will Yellen play? Here are some options: 1. Stop issuing Treasury bonds by reducing the TGA to zero, injecting $1 trillion in liquidity. 2. Shift more borrowing to Treasury bills, thereby drawing funds from RRPs (reverse repurchase agreements), which would inject $400 billion in liquidity. 3. Combining 1 and 2, not issuing long-term bonds, only issuing notes, while reducing TGA and RRP, which will inject $1.4 trillion in liquidity. If any of the three scenarios above occur, investors can expect stocks and cryptocurrencies to rebound. In the medium and long term, as the world's major countries, led by the United States, enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, funds in the market will begin to become abundant. An important reason why funds in the market have become conservative recently is that everyone has begun to predict that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once in 2024, which is far lower than the approximately six 25 basis point rate cuts they expected at the beginning of this year. But no matter what, interest rates will always be cut. I have repeatedly said before that time is our friend, and there will always be a time to open the wallet. What we need to do is to live until that time and not leave the poker table. Looking back, is the poor liquidity of Shanzhai really a bad thing? Not necessarily. When the market is bad, everyone is afraid and a little drop in the market will be magnified, but once the market improves, a little pull in the market will also be magnified. So either take advantage of the Shanzhai downturn to slowly invest in some favorite targets, or always pay attention to the fundamentals of good liquidity and rush in as soon as the market starts to reverse. The current market is also waiting for an opportunity, a catalyst, not a direct shock death. There are still opportunities to make money in the market, whether it is new or furious, lower expectations, control risk exposure, and grab some money with high certainty. Don't rush to laugh at the new coins on Binance, especially the pool. After all, from a historical perspective, almost none of them have not set new highs. It is indeed difficult to make money recently. Stop struggling and wait for the wind to come. I encourage you all.