Amidst crypto volatility, government strategic reserve announcements, and liquidation cascades, the chart attached may have more impact on the future of crypto than anything else. Since the 1970s, the...

<div><div><div><div><div><span><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/440071bab76cd77ecdbf11b43605087f.jpg" alt></span></div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><div><div><p>Amidst crypto volatility, government strategic reserve announcements, and liquidation cascades, the chart attached may have more impact on the future of crypto than anything else. Since the 1970s, the Yen “carry trade,” whereby investors borrowed yen for 0% or very low interest and then used the liquidity to purchase higher-returning assets, has fueled global liquidity, peaking at over $1 trillion before the 2008 financial crisis.</p></div><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/294t78ye.jpg" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/9c062649f9c623de67922b2445c4087c.jpg"></a><div></div><div><p>As we can see in the chart, the 10Y rate has increased over the past 5 years from 0% to ~2.5%. This stems from tightening monetary policy by Japan’s Central Bank (lessening yield curve control intervention), growing inflation in Japan (like everywhere), and rising yields on bonds from other central banks.</p><p>As the gap between US bond rates and Yen rates narrows, the trade becomes less attractive to investors as they seek to maximize returns with as little risk as possible. As a result, global liquidity for risk assets shrinks. And what’s everyone’s favorite risk-on asset LARPing as a store of value…bitcoin!</p><p>On the flip-side, net global liquidity, largely due to China and the US, is increasing. This may counteract some of the effects of the Yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the US gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months (see chart below), it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on Yen borrow.</p><p>In addition, this morning’s CPI print fell slightly under expectations, showing CPI at 2.8% v 2.9% expected. This suggests taming inflation and increased the likelihood of FED rate cuts. The market has repriced expectations of rate cuts this year from 1 to 4 in recent weeks.</p></div><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2947te.jpg" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/c073677e8adc26a675cb080b2f8a3c28.jpg"></a><div></div><div><p>In the short-term, reduction of the Yen carry-trade in size and an increase in BoJ Bond rates is a good proxy for risk asset appetite (and it doesn’t look to be trending in our favor). However, we may have likely reached the short-term peak of this trend and it may be a good time for a risk reversal trade. With a lot of uncertainty in the markets, we don’t see it as a great time to make outsized bets, but prefer a wait-and-see approach.</p><p>View original post on X <a href="https://x.com/two_prime/status/1899840095437365269" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><div><div><p><strong>AUTHOR(S)</strong></p></div><div><div></div></div><div><div>    <div><div><p><img alt="" src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/02748486c01245530149504b79b98bf4.jpg"><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/author/two-prime/" rel="nofollow">Two Prime</a></p><p>Two Prime provides institutions and professional investors with intelligent exposure to digital assets. Learn more about Two Prime <a href="https://www.twoprime.com/" rel="nofollow">here</a>.    </p></div><label><strong>+ Show profile</strong></label><label><strong>- Hide profile</strong></label></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><div><div><p><strong>RECENT ARTICLES</strong></p></div><div><div></div></div><div><section><article><div><span><span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/author/two-prime/" title="Posts by Two Prime" rel="nofollow">Two Prime</a></span></span><span>2025-03-12T16:21:11+00:00</span><h4><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/market-insight/market-insight-the-waning-yen-for-yen/" rel="nofollow">Market Insight: The Waning Yen for Yen</a></h4><p><span><span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/author/two-prime/" title="Posts by Two Prime" rel="nofollow">Two Prime</a></span></span><span>2025-03-12T16:21:11+00:00</span><span>March 12, 2025</span><span>|</span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/market-insight/" rel="nofollow">Market Insight</a><span>|</span></p></div></article><article><div><span><span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/author/two-prime/" title="Posts by Two Prime" rel="nofollow">Two Prime</a></span></span><span>2025-03-10T09:26:47+00:00</span><h4><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/market-insight/market-insight-we-have-a-bitcoin-strategic-reserve-now-what/" rel="nofollow">Market Insight: We Have a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Now What?</a></h4><p><span><span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/author/two-prime/" title="Posts by Two Prime" rel="nofollow">Two Prime</a></span></span><span>2025-03-10T09:26:47+00:00</span><span>March 10, 2025</span><span>|</span><a href="https://insights.deribit.com/market-insight/" rel="nofollow">Market Insight</a><span>|</span></p></div></article></section></div></div></div></div></div><p>The post <a href="https://insights.deribit.com/market-insight/market-insight-the-waning-yen-for-yen/" rel="nofollow">Market Insight: The Waning Yen for Yen</a> appeared first on <a href="https://insights.deribit.com/" rel="nofollow">Deribit Insights</a>.</p>

Market Insight: The Waning Yen for Yen

암호화폐 변동성, 정부 전략 비축 발표, 청산 연쇄 속에서 첨부된 차트는 다른 어떤 것보다도 암호화폐의 미래에 더 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 1970년대 이래로 ...

파일코인(FIL), 후오비 토큰(HT), 밸런서(BAL), 옵티미즘(OP), 알위브(AR), 온톨로지(ONT), 알케미페이(ACH), Ronin(RON), 온톨로지가스(ONG), 데리빗(Deribit), 트론(TRON), 렌(Ren), 킨(Kin), 비트(Bit), 청산, 숏, 가치 저장 수단, 초당 거래 수(TPS), 인터컨티넨탈 거래소, 자산 수익률(ROA), 소비자 가격 지수(CPI)

시장 통찰력: 엔화의 약세

다음과 같이 번역합니다:

<>에 포함된 내용은 번역하지 않았습니다.

채무 문제에 대해 간단히 살펴보면, 미국 정부의 채무 규모는 계속 높은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다. 관련 보도에 따르면 2024년 12월 기준 미국 정부의 채무 규모가 이미 36조 달러를 넘어섰으며, 올해 약 3조 달러의 미국 국채가 만기될 것으로 예상됩니다.

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트럼프와 연준의 다음 행보는 무엇일까? 암호화폐 시장의 미래는 어디로 향하고 있을까?

加密货币交易平台 Hyperliquid(HYPE)正受到审查。在比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)上进行的多笔高杠杆交易引发了潜在洗钱活动的怀疑。
分析师...

Hyperliquid의 의심스러운 고레버리지 거래로 자금세탁 우려 증가

"유리한 조건에서 이더리움(ETH)은 올해 6,000-7,000달러에 도달할 수 있다"고 디크립트(Decrypt)에 한 분석가가 말했습니다.

시장 통찰력: 엔화의 약세

앱을 다운로드하고 혜택 이벤트에 참여하기