2026 Projection: Shutdown Price and Bear Market Bottom Inference!
Key conclusion: The shutdown price of mainstream BTC mining machines in 2026 (US$0.08/kWh) is anchored at US$69,000-74,000.
With the institutionalization of the industry and the iteration of computing power, the deviation of the bear market bottom from the shutdown price has further narrowed to 5%-10%, and the bottom range of this round is expected to be $55,000-$70,000, making the bottom support "harder".
Historical patterns have shown that the bottom of a bear market will inevitably briefly break through the cost line of mainstream mining machines. After the hashrate is cleared out and the difficulty is reduced, the price will return to the shutdown price, and the absolute price at the bottom will continue to rise as the industry matures.
I. Current BTC Mining Machine Shutdown Price Situation (February 2026)
Using an electricity price of $0.08/kWh and a 5% mining pool fee as the core calculation criteria (shutdown price = (daily power consumption of the mining machine × electricity price) ÷ (daily BTC output × 95%)), the mining machines across the network are clearly tiered by efficiency, with the main hashrate concentrated in the critical shutdown range:
1. High-end new model (Ant Financial S23 Hyd/U3S23H): shutdown price of $44,000, currently profitable, with the best resistance to price drops across the entire network;
2. Mainstream computing power (Antminer S21 series): shutdown price of $69,000-$74,000, accounting for the majority of the network's computing power, and is at a critical shutdown point;
3. Mid-to-high-end older models (such as Shenma M60S/Antminer S19 XP+ Hydro): Shutdown price of $75,000-$80,000, already at a slight loss, nearing shutdown;
4. Older models (Ant Group S19 Standard Edition): Shutdown price of $85,000, deep losses, and has been largely shut down and cleared out.
Key features: The shutdown price is not a fixed value. It is dynamically adjusted according to the network's hashrate difficulty, electricity costs, and BTC block rewards. Furthermore, the block rewards are halved after the halving, which will drive the shutdown price significantly upward.
Second and third cycles: Historical evolution of bear market bottoms and shutdown prices
The two bear markets of 2018 and 2022 validated the core logic of "shutdown price as the core cost anchor, bottom breaking through the cost line, and deviation narrowing as the industry matures." Specific characteristics and differences are as follows:
The 2018 bear market (bottom at $3200)
The shutdown price of mainstream mining machines (S9) was around $4,000. The bottom was 20% lower than the shutdown price for 2-3 months. At that time, the industry was dominated by small-scale mining, and high-cost miners were cleared out. The network hashrate plummeted. The price only stabilized and bottomed out after the difficulty was significantly reduced. The bottoming period was relatively long.
The 2022 bear market (bottom at $15,500)
The shutdown price of mainstream mining machines (S19 series) is about $18,000. The bottom is 14% lower than the shutdown price, and the deviation has narrowed by 6 percentage points compared with 2018. The proportion of institutional miners has increased, the hashrate depletion is more moderate, and the price quickly returns to the shutdown price after the difficulty is reduced, and the bottom rebound efficiency has been significantly improved.
2026 cycle (projected bottom at $55,000-$70,000)
The shutdown price of mainstream mining machines (S21 series) is $69,000-$74,000. The bottom is expected to be 5%-10% lower than the shutdown price, and the deviation will further narrow. With the deepening of institutionalization in the industry, the acceleration of computing power iteration, and the support of institutional funds, the depletion of computing power will be more gradual, the bottom support will be stronger, and the bottoming period may be further shortened.
Commonalities and Core Trends
1. Commonality: The bottom of a bear market will inevitably briefly break through the shutdown price of mainstream mining machines at that time. After breaking through, it will trigger a closed loop of "clearing out high-cost mining machines → decline in hash rate → difficulty reduction → lower shutdown price → formation of new support".
2. Trend: With the iteration of computing power, the institutionalization of miners, and the regional differentiation of electricity prices, the deviation of the bottom from the shutdown price continues to narrow (20%→14%→5%-10%), and the absolute price at the bottom of the bear market moves upward in a step-like manner (US$3,200→US$15,500→US$55,000-70,000).
III. The Core Logic of Shutdown Price and Bear Market Bottom
1. The shutdown price is the core support line for computing power, but not an absolute bottom: short-term market sentiment and liquidity shocks may cause the price to break through the shutdown price significantly, but this state is not sustainable. A continuous drop will trigger a passive contraction of the entire network's computing power, forming upward repair momentum for the price.
2. The three steps to form the bottom of a bear market: the price breaks through the shutdown price of mainstream mining machines → high-cost and inefficient mining machines are shut down in batches, and the hashrate is cleared out → the hashrate difficulty of the entire network is reduced + miners are reluctant to sell + buy the dips funds enter the market to buy at the bottom → the price bottoms out and rebounds, completing the bottoming process;
3. The mining machine tiers determine the price support gradient: the shutdown price of high-end new models constitutes the ultimate support in the bear market, the shutdown price of mainstream hashrate models is the core support, and the shutdown price of older models is the weak support in the early stage. The pace of hashrate clearing is highly matched with the mining machine tiers.
IV. Key Memory Points
1. Cost line pattern: The shutdown price is the core cost anchor of BTC in a bear market. The bottom will inevitably be broken, the deviation will inevitably narrow, and the price will inevitably move upward.
2. Differences in the three cycles: 2018 saw a "deep decline and slow grinding," 2022 saw a "shallow decline and rapid rebound," and 2026 saw a "slight decline and stable support."
3. Core prediction for 2026: $69,000-$74,000 is the core support level for current computing power, and $55,000-$70,000 is the core range for the bottom of the bear market. After breaking through this range, the clearing out of computing power and institutional support will drive the price back to the cost line quickly.
The weighted average shutdown price across the entire network is $72,000, which aligns with the above calculations. The more panicked we are, the more we need to be smart; perhaps things aren't as bad as we imagine!
Bitcoin may form a price bottom near the high of the previous cycle, around $60,000, possibly in the first half of 2026, after which a more solid price support range will gradually be established.
The current market weakness is more likely a correction nearing its end, rather than the start of a new, prolonged Crypto Winter.
While short-term volatility is still unavoidable, if a reversal occurs as expected in 2026, it could kick off what Bitcoin calls its "most critical cycle," with an impact that could even surpass the traditional four-year price cycle.
twitter.com/cloakmk/status/201...
