Phyrex

Phyrex

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4XLABS 辅导全球Web3项目落地华语市场只是个搬砖的，偶尔恰饭不奢求，不浪费 GlassNode 重度使用者没有群也不收费，所有分析回答均不构成投资建议近3亿用户共同选择Binance：https://t.co/JukzSnpfwD Crypto入口OKX就够了：https://t.co/vPOAfIjmpB SolarSG 发起人

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Many people have asked me if this price drop was caused by the Bithumb airdrop. The answer is obvious: there was only an exposure of 1,788 $BTC. twitter.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/2...

I don't know the specifics, and ultimately we'll have to look at the 13F data. But if that's the case, it means that this part of $IBIT was leveraged. To be precise, the price drop in $BTC led to a discount in $IBIT, triggering the institution's leveraged IBIT liquidation.

@qukuainatie629

应该是某个基金在ibit上了大仓位，大饼价格下跌导致被清算，所以这么大的交易量，具体是哪个基金，要等到13F文件披露了。

The logic should be: BTC first falls, then this triggers a widening of the ETF discount, which in turn triggers arbitrage, ultimately leading to ETF outflows. Instead of: ETF outflows causing BTC to fall.

非常开心可以和江老师讨论 $IBIT 的清算问题。首先我们需要搞清楚几个细节。 1. Bitcoin现货ETF 交易的是ETF 而不是 $BTC 2. 贝莱德现货ETF的二级市场交易的是 $IBIT ，而且只有 IBIT 3. 现货ETF涉及到 Bitcoin x.com/jiangzhuoer2/s…

It's great to have the opportunity to discuss the liquidation issue of $IBIT with Professor Jiang. First, we need to clarify a few details. 1. The Bitcoin spot ETF trades the ETF itself, not $BTC. 2. The secondary market trading of the BlackRock spot ETF is for $IBIT, and only IBIT. 3. The only instances of Bitcoin in the spot ETF involving Bitcoin are in the primary market buying and redemption, which are provided to BlackRock by various APs (although not market makers, they can be understood as such). 4. When users in the primary market need to issue new IBIT, BlackRock requires APs to provide spot BTC as "certificates" for the corresponding new IBIT issuance. This BTC is held in custodial wallets and cannot be used or traded by BlackRock or any other organization; it is regulated. Currently, the custodian is Coinbase. 5. When users in the primary market need to redeem IBIT, BlackRock needs to transfer BTC to AP. AP then sells the BTC and transfers the funds to BlackRock, which then completes the redemption. 6. Here's the key point: please note that AP's provision or sale of BTC may not be through the market, especially not through the secondary market. AP may even be holding BTC itself. For AP, it only needs to complete the transaction within T+1 timeframe with the required BTC or USD. Therefore, the less than 6,000 BTC sold across the US on Thursday represents all the BTC sold by the ETF. This portion may not all enter the market; even if it does, the maximum is only 6,000 BTC. 7. IBIT itself tracks the price of Bitcoin, which is also very important!! ETFs track price, not BTC itself. This is similar to $MSTR (only the presentation is similar, the structure is different). Does a rise in MSTR necessarily mean a rise in BTC, or a fall in MSTR necessarily mean a fall in BTC? Nobody believes that. And does the price change of MSTR itself affect the price of BTC? There's definitely no direct transmission, because MSTR is an independent asset. The same applies to IBIT. IBIT tracks the price movement of BTC. If BTC rises, IBIT will rise 99.99% of the time. But if BTC rises by 20% today, and BlackRock suddenly announces that its stored BTC has been stolen and cannot be compensated, then IBIT will definitely fall. That's the logic. 8. Will IBIT's secondary market affect the spot price of BTC? There's no direct transmission. Jiang mentioned that the secondary market received sell orders from market makers, which is possible, but at most 6,000 BTC—that's the upper limit. Furthermore, it's almost impossible for AP to sell any more BTC to the market. The only BTC AP can obtain is from transfers from all ETF institutions, including BlackRock. On Thursday, less than 4,000 BTC were transferred out of IBIT, so I don't believe the sharp drop was due to those 4,000 BTC. 9. It's possible that AP itself has other BTC to sell, but this is unrelated to IBIT. AP is independent and has its own BTC reserves and trading. However, the only BTC AP can obtain from IBIT is from the primary market exits; not even 0.01 BTC more. 10. All the pressure in the IBIT secondary market is concentrated on the IBIT stock itself. Buying and selling IBIT is equivalent to buying and selling BTC (price fluctuations), and it doesn't actually affect BTC itself. The above is open for friendly discussion between Mr. Jiang (@Jiangzhuoer2) and everyone else.

江卓尔_莱比特矿池

这点我不同意，我倾向于原因就是IBIT的大规模清算。 1、虽然明面上看起来，IBIT的一级市场并没有卖出多少BTC，但你不知道二级市场接抛压的做市商/套利者，为了对冲，同时在币圈交易所卖出/做空了多少BTC。 x.com/Phyrex_Ni/stat…

From my personal perspective, one reason is that the funds held by institutions and fund managers have repeatedly broken through historical lows. When even the biggest investors don't have the money to drive up prices, the market will inevitably be more affected by sentiment. Let's wait and see the BOA data next week. If global fund economy funds start to recover, then this story will make sense.

这轮下跌并非没有预兆 1. solana meme集团24-25年赚的扔盆满钵满，trump发币是高潮，但并没有诞生超级应用，也没有给solana带来有价值的tvl，阴谋集团探险离场 2. 东南亚电诈集团被中美联合绞杀，btc最大的外部买家没了 3. 头部交易所不作为，刷量上币活动把下沉市场用户洗完了，最后1011一波带走 4. x.com/chinesewsj/sta…

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