Jinze 金泽

Jinze 金泽

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Here are my reading notes NOT financial advice. Now @MuseLabs1 +LD Research. Prev. Binance Research, WallStreetCN, EY.

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Technically, the US simply cannot reduce its balance sheet right now. Low bank reserves, depleted ON RRPs, massive fiscal issuance, and SLR regulations locking up bank purchasing power create four constraints. Ultimately, the only option is to expand the balance sheet and lower interest rates, not to shrink it. This is an overreaction.

In an era where presidential power attempts to override institutional authority, any asset (Crypto, Physical Metals) that can be "censorship resistant" and "self-managed" should rightfully enjoy a political risk premium.

Biggest risk this week: Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike Date: December 19 (Friday) -Market expectations: The market is currently pricing in a 76% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, and 90% of economists surveyed by Reuters predict a rate hike. -Kazuo Ueda hinted last week that future rate hikes will be "more than once." -If there is no rate hike in December, the central bank will also make a clear hawkish statement to convey that "the time for a rate hike is approaching" in order to curb the rebound of the yen's depreciation.

BlackRock: "Over the past 150 years, even with multiple technological revolutions, the U.S. economy has maintained a growth rate of around 2%. We believe that accelerating AI-driven innovation has the potential to push economic growth above that level."

The "internal rotation" of narratives and fundamentals in the TMT sector.

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