Biggest risk this week: Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike Date: December 19 (Friday) -Market expectations: The market is currently pricing in a 76% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, and 90% of economists surveyed by Reuters predict a rate hike. -Kazuo Ueda hinted last week that future rate hikes will be "more than once." -If there is no rate hike in December, the central bank will also make a clear hawkish statement to convey that "the time for a rate hike is approaching" in order to curb the rebound of the yen's depreciation.

- If no rate hike occurs in December, the central bank will likely make a hawkish statement to convey that "the time for a rate hike is approaching" in order to curb the rebound in yen depreciation. - The new core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) will be released on December 19th, and is expected to be +3.1% year-on-year (unchanged from October). Significant changes could affect the BOJ's decision in the afternoon.

- Be wary of Friday: Given the high probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on Friday and the US CPI data on Thursday, it is advisable to reduce risk exposure before then. - Although current trends suggest investors are not overly concerned about risk: Japanese government bond yields are hovering at high levels, USD/JPY is slightly down, and Japanese stocks are consolidating at high levels. - By the way, the last quadruple witching day of the year for derivatives and the US stock buyback freeze both fall on Friday, so significant volatility is expected, with a downward bias.