Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...
This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:
For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.Ā
That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last weekās video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...
US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fedās low estimate for 2025 (chart 1).Ā
If it drifts toward 4.5% or 4.6%, as our lead indicators suggest, thatās a green light for more cuts into 2026, even though there are early signs the employment cycle has already turned up. More on that in a moment...
At the same time, unemployment breadth peaked over a year ago and continued to fall in August (chart 2).
Quantitatively, this is a good sign. The index rises into recession, it doesnāt fallā¦
We peaked last June at 92%, but it has since dropped to 62% of US states reporting a year-on-year rise in unemployment.
Now, take a look at this next chart...
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This index tracks weekly overtime hours in the most cyclical parts of the US economy, with data back to the 1950s (chart 3).Ā
Every recession has come when it rolls over toward the -2 standard deviation level, and we are nowhere near that.
Additionally, the August data showed a further pick-up in overtime hours, which, as I have been highlighting in these reports, is much more consistent with an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum than anything else...
This is exactly why S&P earnings revisions keep exploding higher, just as weāve been expecting (chart 4).
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The Fed is cutting rates right as the business cycle is turning up. Thatās hugely bullish for risk assets.
These arenāt late-cycle recession cuts. Theyāre early-cycle insurance cuts... two very different things.
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The end of The Waiting Room is near...
