ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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Bitcoin ETF flows have been in a drawdown for more than 100 days already. That’s the longest period of net demand weakness on record for the ETFs. And this week’s renewed macro turbulences have disrupted the nascent inflow streak that started last week. The demand-regime shift Bitcoin has been waiting for to start a recovery isn’t there yet.

Bitcoin dominated ETF inflows after launch in early 2024. But that lead is no longer expanding. While Bitcoin ETF flows have largely stalled since November, gold ETFs have continued to attract capital. The result is a rapidly narrowing gap: cumulative gold inflows are now just ~$6B behind Bitcoin’s ~$58B. This isn’t a price story. It’s an allocation story. As macro uncertainty has picked up, capital has increasingly favoured defensive exposure through gold rather than expanding risk via Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s 30-day ETF flows just crossed back above zero for the first time since November. That matters because flows are closely tied to short-term returns. This is not confirmation of a new demand regime yet. But it does mark a shift to a more supportive demand backdrop for Bitcoin’s price recovery. The key question from here is whether or not this demand is persistent.

The Fed is sending mixed signals again. Chairman Powell struck a neutral tone at the December press conference, but the FOMC minutes tell a different story. Our Fed Communication Index moves back into moderately hawkish territory, close to its long-term average. The message: policy is cautious and divided, not decisively easing.

The crypto market hasn’t just pulled back. It has re-composed. Total market cap is down about 25% from the peak, close to where it was in 2021, but the mix has changed meaningfully. Bitcoin and stablecoins have gained share, while Ethereum and the broader altcoin complex have continued to shrink. Capital is concentrating around a few durable use cases, not spreading across the ecosystem.

Bitcoin keeps failing near the same levels for a reason. ETF flows remain volatile, flipping between strong inflows and strong outflows with no persistence. A few strong days aren’t enough to support a sustained move higher. Without a cluster of inflow days that sticks, upside momentum remains fragile.

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