ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

104,236 Twitter followers

Follow

Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

Posts

Bitcoin just exited a six-day streak of ETF outflows that had been weighing on price. But that doesn’t mean the pressure is gone. So far, no sustained inflows have appeared to support a rebound.

Bitcoin dropped 8% over the past week and this time, it’s not just price weakness. ETF investors pulled 19K BTC across six consecutive days, a clear negative signal as Bitcoin hovers near the $100K threshold.

Bitcoin’s drawdown continues, 30 days in and sitting 22% below its peak. The price trajectory is almost a mirror of February’s correction, which also started after a round of U.S. trade tensions. Back then, it took 79 days for Bitcoin to find a bottom about 30% below its high.

Days like this are a reminder that Bitcoin still trades as a high-beta Nasdaq 100 play most of the time. When the Nasdaq drops more than 1.5% in a day, • Bitcoin has a 75% chance of posting a negative return. • On average, Bitcoin falls –2.4%. So it’s no surprise that with the Nasdaq 100 selling off, Bitcoin is taking a hit too.

Bitcoin’s price is still in a drawdown, but underneath the surface demand hasn’t vanished. Instead of structural outflows, Bitcoin ETFs continue to post strong 30-day inflows. This looks less like a bearish turn and more like a sentiment disconnect between price and positioning.

Ethereum is trading at a 42% discount relative to Bitcoin. That’s what you get when modeling Ethereum’s fair value based on its historical relationship to Bitcoin’s price. If you believe the Ethereum ETFs can attract capital anywhere near what Bitcoin’s have, ETH looks like a

Bitcoin miners are finally outperforming Bitcoin, but not for the usual reasons. This surge is driven mostly by a few public mining companies redirecting part of their compute capacity toward AI workloads, not Bitcoin’s price momentum. Without those AI-related bets, we wouldn’t see this kind of divergence.

Bitcoin is rising alongside the shift back to risk-on sentiment. Markets have been oscillating between risk-on and risk-off in recent weeks. But with gold down and equities up this week, the pendulum has clearly swung back toward risk-taking. That’s exactly the environment

Bitcoin is trading well below its fair value implied by ETF flows. At around $108K, Bitcoin sits roughly 10% under the model’s expected price of $120K. That’s a strong deviation which points to sentiment, not structural weakness, driving the pullback. That leaves plenty of

Loading..