ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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Strategy is accelerating Bitcoin accumulation again. The pace looks a lot like late 2024 but this time it’s happening in a bear market. It adds a steady source of demand right as ETF flows are turning higher. Quietly, the demand side is getting stronger.

Bitcoin is getting closer to a key level. Price is rising, but the long-term trend is still negative. Historically, this kind of setup resolves with a break in one direction. A confirmed move above the 200-day average would mark a real shift. Right now, we’re not there yet. Flows are improving, price is recovering but the trend hasn’t flipped. Watch the level.

Bitcoin is rallying but the market it depends on is not that strong. The S&P 500 is at new highs. But only ~55% of stocks are above their 200-day average. In strong rallies, that number is closer to 65–75%. This is a narrow move, driven by a small group of stocks. Bitcoin is still trading as a risk asset. So if this equity rally loses momentum, BTC won’t be immune.

Financial conditions might have just stopped tightening. After weeks of deterioration, the NFCI is starting to stabilize, driven by improving credit conditions and a pause in de-risking. Bitcoin tends to struggle when conditions tighten and perform better when they ease. If this stabilization turns back into a sustained easing trend, it removes a key headwind for Bitcoin. Not a tailwind yet, but the pressure is starting to lift.

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