In response to this question, its difficult to see on a long term chart so I boxed out the first two monthly orange bars of each cycle, then zoomed in and this is what I found in terms of % draw downs during those first two monthly orange bars:
2013: -75.4% correction
2016: -35.42% correction
2020: -21.18% correction
2026: -25.53% correction
A few other points:
In the bars immediately after the 2016 -35.42% correction had recovered, Bitcoin suffered a second -33.59% correction, but it was a higher low.
In the bars immediately before the 2026 -25.53% correction, Bitcoin had already suffered a -36.13% correction. A total decline of -42.23% for Bitcoin's most recent correction.
So if we update that list for the total decline over that slightly wider period, we get:
2013: -75.4% correction
2016-17: -35.42% correction
2020: -21.18% correction
2025-26: -42.23% correction
On this basis alone I wouldn't say current price action is a historical anomolie. We have seen worse price action occur at the business cycle inflection point.
It would be interesting to overlay the 4 year cycle on my oscillator (I will do this in a separate post).
My take is that we are stuck between the unwind of the 4 year cycle, there are clearly sellers of that structure, and the infection point of business cycle expansion, because for the first time ever in Bitcoin's history, these two cycles are not aligned.
