Ethan Mollick

Ethan Mollick

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Professor @Wharton studying AI, innovation & startups. Democratizing education using tech Book: https://t.co/CSmipbJ2jV Substack: https://t.co/UIBhxu4bgq

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The AI commentators have won on this platform, not just because of the volume, but because they produce meaning-shaped comments that take too long to parse and identify as meaningless. Posts are still useful, commentary has become useless, finding sparks of good stuff too hard.

I wrote back in 2024 that AI is creating four singularities for research (where a singularity is a point in human affairs where AI has so altered a field that we cannot imagine what the world on the other side of that singularity looks like). True now. oneusefulthing.org/p/four-sing...…

If you’re an economist, or any sort of social scientist, I’m not sure how you can look at the chart below and keep doing the same type of research you were a year ago. x.com/polynoamial/st…

Mac only releases for AI tools is an annoying trend. This is an opinion that unites both gamers and corporate users.

“One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” 1958, Obituary for John von Neumann by Stanislaw Ulam

This paper (by a colleague) is being misunderstood - it is not a prediction about whether the METR exponential curve is ending, but an argument that it is plausible to model the exponential as a series of stacked s-curves, which would require further breakthroughs (at the scale of reasoning) to continue. I don't necessarily even think this contradicts what most insiders in AI, from Demis to Andrej, are saying!

I wanted to make a few clarifications, which we believe were clear in our paper but not in my original post (re-analyzing @METR_Evals data). Our contribution is to posit progress as a multiplicative product of sigmoids around different innovations. Given the METR data, we split x.com/hamsabastani/s…

With the current state of AI, there is a lot of alpha, as they say, in being a good manager who understands process, can explain it clearly, knows what info is needed for a task, and has expertise in evaluating the results of work quickly. These are transferable skills to AI.

It’s interesting that there’s a whole bunch of people trying to figure out how you do SEO for AI models that do not like being manipulated, that interact in ways we don’t fully understand with context and with user preferences, & know when they’re being measured. Seems hard. twitter.com/emollick/status/20...

Data confirms that Opus 4.1 was a super weird model.

Folks, I can only test so many models a day, even when given early access. If everyone would just slow down their release schedules for a half a decade or so, the world can catch up.

Opus 4.6 saturates my Lem test, which I've done since GPT-3.5 SciFi author Stanislaw Lem wrote of two rival constructors of robots. One creates a robotic poet & the other challenges it to write an impossible poem, it does Opus does it as a 6 line poem, sonnet, & 🤯 a sestina. twitter.com/emollick/status/20...

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