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Haotian | CryptoInsight
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独立研究员| Researcher | 以技术和商业视角解读区块链前沿科技 | ZK、AI Agent、DePIN ,etc | 硬核科普 | Previously：@ambergroup_io | @peckshield | DMs for Collab ｜ 社群只对Substack订阅会员开放
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
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I've observed that the current technological narrative surrounding Crypto has been summarized into two main lines: 1) "Asset Tokenization": This involves putting traditional financial assets "on-chain," including stocks, government bonds, options, and commercial paper. The goal is to expand "what can be traded," breaking the current predicament of Crypto's purely virtual currency trading without value accumulation. Examples include Coinbase's integrated financial account, Nasdaq's 23-hour trading, JPMorgan Chase's issuance of commercial paper on Solana, BlackRock's BUIDL tokenized fund, and Robinhood's comprehensive integration of crypto assets. 2) "User Agentization": This allows AI agents to become independent actors, expanding "what the trading subject is," moving from the traditional "user" subject to "Agent," thereby forming an Agentic Economy ecosystem based on intent to complete payments, transactions, and asset allocation. Examples include Google's collaboration with Coinbase to promote the AP2+x402 standard, a16z's "Know Your Agent" trend, and prediction markets like Polymarket/kalshi integrating AI LLM to expand into derivatives markets. On the surface, the two narrative directions are not new: asset tokenization corresponds to RWA, and user agentification corresponds to AI Agent +x402. However, it should be noted that these two major narratives are not the efforts of Crypto alone, but rather a "two-way journey" between Crypto and the traditional financial market.
Haotian | CryptoInsight
@tmel0211
看了 5家顶级机构a16z、高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、贝莱德的2026年趋势展望报告，提炼了两个价值观点： 1）谈什么泡沫，AI产业会迎来加速投入期？ 摩根士丹利给出了一个惊人的数字：AI基础设施资本支出预计3万亿美元，目前部署不足20%。
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
After reviewing the 2026 trend outlook reports from five top institutions—a16z, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock—I extracted two key value points: 1) What's the bubble? Will the AI industry enter a period of accelerated investment? Morgan Stanley presented a startling figure: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is projected at $3 trillion, with less than 20% currently deployed. What does this mean? Large-scale cloud providers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are currently spending heavily on building data centers, buying GPUs, and laying power infrastructure—and this is just the beginning. However, JPMorgan Chase offers a sober assessment of the actual benefits of this large-scale AI adoption, believing it will only boost profits for some companies in the short term, helping giants optimize their profitability. The real benefits of a qualitative leap in AI productivity will take many years. In essence, it boils down to one point: 2026 will still be a year of massive AI spending, but it's still just the investment phase, far from the harvest. 2) US stock market concentration dividends and spillover effects from non-US markets—which side are you on? BlackRock has proposed a concept called "Micro is Macro," arguing that AI investments by a few companies already have a macroeconomic impact. Data shows that by 2025 year-to-date, the equal-weighted S&P 500 in the US stock market will only rise by 3%, but the market capitalization-weighted version of the top tech companies will rise by 11%. This 8% difference may be due to the concentration of AI growth. Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive in this regard, setting a target of 7800 points for the S&P 500, representing a 14% increase from current levels, arguing that the profitability of the tech giants will continue to strengthen. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that as the dollar weakens, the AI dividend will spill over into the global supply chain, thus giving emerging markets a 10.9% annualized expected return, higher than the 6.7% for US large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs also sides with this spillover view, giving emerging markets the same 10.9% expectation, believing that Europe (7.1%) and Japan (8.2%) have potential. Simply put, these are two completely different bets: BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are betting that the AI dividend will continue to be monopolized by US tech giants, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are betting that AI is a global infrastructure upgrade, and the dividends will spread to global non-US markets.
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
12-21
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In fact, both Crypto and AI are empowering humanity, but their methods and depths of empowerment are completely different. Consider these points: 1) Crypto empowerment emphasizes so-called "decentralized financial sovereignty," allowing people to control their assets and exchange value without relying on traditional centralized institutions like banks. This approach is "defensive," meaning that while it's not essential, having it is even better. This implies that by adhering to decentralized empowerment, the Crypto industry will never be disproven. 2) AI empowerment, on the other hand, involves an "exponential amplification of productivity," enabling people to do things that were previously impossible. This explains the continuous expansionary capital investment from internet giants, driving the continuous growth of AI-related stocks. This approach is "offensive," meaning that the AI industry's growth has already followed a scaling law-like growth curve. This law tells us that AI capability growth is predictable, sustainable, and exponential. We can already see a computing power arms race, an algorithmic revolution, and the large-scale adoption of agent applications—all foreseeable future developments. But Crypto is different. The growth logic of crypto has shifted from regulatory arbitrage to orderly penetration under regulatory approval. Therefore, in terms of sheer "wild" growth, Crypto's growth rate, as many perceive, is indeed lagging behind AI. This isn't to say Crypto has no value, but rather that its value realization speed cannot keep pace with the speed at which AI is changing the world. Therefore, Crypto must make a choice: either actively embrace AI and become the value layer infrastructure of the AI Economy, or gradually narrow its expectations and become a "casino," transforming into a niche speculative financial market, completely detached from "value." Therefore, the x402 protocol, AI Agent payments, and on-chain AI economy are all narrative directions for Crypto to actively embrace AI. Although this process will be slow, as AI generates massive payment and automated transaction demands, it will allow Crypto to keep up with the scaled growth of the AI industry and thus enjoy the dividends of AI's growth. The time window is also clear: if 2027 is taken as the time node for the emergence of AGI, Crypto must complete a wave of protocol layer positioning and deployment before then. Stop obsessing over "Crypto for Humanity," getting hopelessly entrenched in these pirate philosophies, and clinging to the lifeline of AI industry growth. If you can even get a slice of the pie when the AI economy fully explodes, you'll consider yourself successful. twitter.com/tmel0211/status/20...
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
12-17
I really don't want to agree with the author's point of view, but unfortunately, from an outsider's perspective, Crypto/Web3/ the crypto has indeed been stigmatized as an "independent industry," and it has a heavy reputational burden 😭. Some project teams, exchanges, and DeGen players have formed a perfect self-destructive loop, turning what should have been an emerging field of technological innovation into a casino of pure zero-sum games under the guise of "making money" and "making money by making reasonable use of the rules." The fatal flaw of this closed loop is that it perfectly achieves the corrosive and expulsive effect of bad money on good. Builders who genuinely focus on product development and solving real-world problems either have to learn the strategy of issuing tokens before implementing their projects, learn to choose sides and cultivate relationships, or be ostracized and simply leave the cryptocurrency market. In short, those who genuinely focus on their work are utterly powerless against the combined pressure of "traffic power and liquidity extraction"... Imagine if outsiders saw Crypto as just a bunch of gamblers playing a game of musical chairs, who would believe that there was world-changing technology involved? Therefore, the author's statement about "Crypto dissolves" seems to have become the only path for the industry to redeem itself. Stripping away the independent industry attributes of cryptocurrencies, finding ways to integrate valuable decentralized concepts, verifiable encryption technology, programmable composability, and tokenomics cold start methods into real-world scenarios such as payments, finance, data, and identity might reveal unique value. For example, stablecoins integrating with TradeFi, DeFi being adopted by Wall Street, and RWA tokenization gradually taking hold may not have the allure of bubbles, but their value lies in their longevity. Perhaps, if the cryptocurrency industry doesn't deliberately "die" once, it will truly destroy itself...
Tongtong Bee
@tongtongbee
12-17
这篇文章在老外圈火了，每次熊市都是一次行业大反思。 核心观点： 1）加密作为一个独立、自洽的产业会溶解。 2）大多数只做加密原生用户的应用会死掉或永远做不大。 3）“crypto / Web3”这个标签会变成负担。 我们正在走向这一阶段：成功的条件不是“更多加密原生用户”，而是“更多正常人”。 x.com/DougieDeLuca/s…
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
12-11
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Let's talk about @SurfAI securing $15 million in funding: 1) Let's start with the basics. Surf appears to be an AI assistant designed for Crypto investment research personnel, covering many scenarios in the Crypto field such as investment research, trading strategies, and airdrop tutorials. The problem it aims to solve is simple and straightforward: package up all on-chain data, whale tracking, KOL sentiment, technical indicators, and so on, and let AI generate a structured report for you all at once. What might take a professional analyst several hours to accomplish, AI can do in just a few minutes. The key point is that it integrates many native Crypto data sources, including 40+ public chains, 100,000+ KOLs, and 200+ technical indicators. This breadth of reach for the Crypto vertical market is an advantage that other general Web2 AIs such as GPT and Claude do not have. 2) Interestingly, its market validation was remarkably rapid. Within just five months of its launch, it had penetrated 80% of leading institutions, achieving a monthly growth rate of 50%, and its ARR had reached millions of dollars. This demonstrates that products like Surf truly meet market demand and have been validated by the market. In the current sluggish market, the fact that Pantera led the investment, with Coinbase Ventures and DCG also participating, speaks volumes. It's clear that VCs are more optimistic about the commercial potential of AI in vertical scenarios. Perhaps crypto-based vertical tools and services have an advantage in terms of monetization and scaling speed? 3) But I'm more interested in the timing and other potential possibilities. Currently, the x402 track has given Agent Payment a huge narrative expectation; a large number of agents will gradually have the ability to make payments. However, they actually lack a comprehensive "central brain"for the crypto. What if Surf could API-ize its comprehensive research capabilities in the future, allowing other agents to call them directly? Then it will be more than just a B2B research tool; it could potentially evolve into a "data infrastructure" for the AI ​​Agent ecosystem, serving not only people but also agents. With the convenient payment channel of x402, its commercial potential will increase by another order of magnitude. Note: I've been using SURF for research, and it's been quite helpful in aggregating information sources, reducing data and content noise, especially in generating systematic knowledge and reports. Those interested can give it a try. http:/asksurf.ai/?r=D98F3B4D71... twitter.com/tmel0211/status/19...
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