jez

jez

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i must not fomo. fomo is the mind-killer. C V G A L L E R I E S : Cryptoadz | http://bit.ly/3mQ03z4 Bonafide's Fidenzas | http://bit.ly/3iKqC6B tweets are my mid opinion.

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i am much more excited about binary option bets (which are banned in us for good reason) than prediction markets twitter.com/izebel_eth/status/...

memecoins have had a massive dilutionary effect on the # of coins, fracturing capital into a million pools perps are bad for ppl and both ppl and the space would be better off with spot, but i cant stop ppl from trading derivatives the children yearn for delta levg twitter.com/izebel_eth/status/...

i think there is a fundamental misunderstanding when it comes to nasdaq's 24hr proposal, as many people have expressed competition concern for onchain rwa perps this simply massively improves the overnight liquidity and oracles for single name stocks. no longer will overnight perps traders have to apply beta ala jane st, the underlying will have robust pricing 24hr spot trading is not a replacement for perps anymore than it is for 0dtes. those wanting higher delta risk will always gravitate to the instruments that allow it. this just allows the perps to be *much* more robust

my intern wrote an (attempted objective) primer on the landscape of the top 4 perp dexes today twitter.com/izebel_eth/status/...

robinhood hyperliquid lighter tradexyz variational

if i sound like a broken record on this its because i am we are within shooting distance of one of my longest standing thesis, perps eating the world all thats left is to position

jez (equity perps era)

yeah thats the pt, robinhood users just want levg and otm weekly calls/puts are their only options, they dont know what greeks or IV or anything they just fking slamming high delta, if perps existed on robinhood options would have 0 volume

perp dexes are the first credible dream since the 2021 defi era governments have bought btc but wallstreet/mainstreet havent adopted perps yet this meta doesnt top until perps eat 0dte options imho twitter.com/izebel_eth/status/...

playing daily runners, like minting the new nft before it, is kinda like playing poker - theres a defined ball/pot of money, and how big that ball/pot is is how big the action can get - you see ppl comment about 50m toppers, 10m, 5m, etc some ppl are good at playing poker, and some ppl are good at consistently hitting these (although i would argue these are a lot more rigged than most poker games), but even with success you're still playing a capped game if you cant realistically see yourself holding it/the market caring a few months out if i sum up the net pnl columns of "high conviction spot holds" and "trying to make quick $", whether through levg or fomo, its very + and - respectively

perp dex volume is top of mind for me given positions in lit + hype at this pt volume is v correlated w/ volatility, but unlike other narratives perps are evergreen (if overfarmed) i like to think of it like bnb (perp exch) vs tia (narrative) rn both going thru distribution but i think allocating at good valuations here will A. outperform most perp dex farms and B. position well for when (if) buyers return

here is what i am looking at for lighter hl saw daily volume grow post tge from a base of ~1bn to 2-4bn, all organic lighter has seen volumes come in from 10bn+ to finding its base ~2-4bn again, the same this is the answer to "how much volume is organic" and while its below the aster-induced october fever highs, its real, and i think its share of perp dex volume will continue to rise from this point (along with hl) as ppl favor immediate economics and liquidity vs future economics i think thinking about revenue is good, focusing too much on it misses that perps are a land grab and trading revenue for market share is a longterm winning strategy what is very different this time is the rest of the mkt, q4 2024 was peak capital expansion, rn ex-mayors are rugging for 3m it helps if your thesis is not validated/invalidated by price - my thesis is that: 1. perp exchange pie continues growing despite the october aster blowoff top 2. hl + lighter are the dominant clob duo that will continue to seperate from the pack

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