here is what i am looking at for lighter
hl saw daily volume grow post tge from a base of ~1bn to 2-4bn, all organic
lighter has seen volumes come in from 10bn+ to finding its base ~2-4bn again, the same
this is the answer to "how much volume is organic" and while its below the aster-induced october fever highs, its real, and i think its share of perp dex volume will continue to rise from this point (along with hl) as ppl favor immediate economics and liquidity vs future economics
i think thinking about revenue is good, focusing too much on it misses that perps are a land grab and trading revenue for market share is a longterm winning strategy
what is very different this time is the rest of the mkt, q4 2024 was peak capital expansion, rn ex-mayors are rugging for 3m
it helps if your thesis is not validated/invalidated by price - my thesis is that:
1. perp exchange pie continues growing despite the october aster blowoff top
2. hl + lighter are the dominant clob duo that will continue to seperate from the pack


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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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