Ad*m@Greeks.live

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宏观研究员@GreeksLive 期权市场数据 | 宏观金融分析 | 原创投资观点 @binance 币安广场专栏作者 | @wublockchain12 吴说专栏作者电报群：https://t.co/WGxRTXlg11 新人指南：https://t.co/LC2R0M2Tew

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Ad*m@Greeks.live

[February 6th Options Delivery Data] 33,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.54, a maximum price ceiling of $80,000, and a notional value of $2.1 billion. 219,000 ETH options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.91, a maximum price of $2,400, and a notional value of $420 million. The crypto market suffered a bloodbath, with BTC briefly falling below $60,000 and ETH briefly falling below $1,750. Options representing 10% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.6 billion, expired today. The sharp downward trend in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continues, with put options dominating the market. The fear index briefly fell to 5%, and panic once again gripped the crypto market. Looking at the main options data, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has increased significantly. The implied volatility of BTC's main term is over 60%, and the implied volatility of several short-term at-the-money options is over 110%. The implied volatility of ETH's main term is 80%, and the implied volatility of several short-term at-the-money options is over 120%, all of which are at their highest levels in more than a year. This week, the volume and proportion of put option transactions remained high, with market makers starting to take on a large amount of put demand and showing a strong willingness to trade. The brief attempts to buy the dips were swallowed up by the massive downward wave.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark without any resistance. The area starting with 6 is the consolidation zone before the Trump rally, and the support is relatively strong. If there is a rapid dip in the short term, it may be a good time to buy the dips some. Options data shows that institutions and large investors also have an urgent need for hedging and betting. The implied volatility of BTC current month options is as high as 100%, which has doubled since the beginning of the year. The implied volatility of the main current month options has also exceeded 50%, which has increased by 15% in two weeks. Skew has even hit a new low in two years. The options market structure is now entirely dominated by bearish sentiment, but some speculative buying of deep out-of-the-money options for buy the dips has begun to emerge. Currently, the market is in a phase of excessive panic, and the conditions for a continued rapid decline in BTC are not sufficient. A quick market clearing of risk is conducive to a market rebound.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

ETH broke below $2200 without any resistance. Yesterday, we mentioned that large players were continuously adding to their put positions, even those with very low strike prices. This strategy is still in place today, but trading volume is starting to concentrate on put options expiring in March at $70,000 to $80,000. Implied volatility (IV) is rising rapidly, and skewness is quickly turning negative, indicating that large players are shifting from short-term speculation to expressing medium- to long-term views. The bearish sentiment is starting to materialize from mere concern. Based on my years of experience, ETH is very likely to test the $2000 psychological level.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

Volatility has increased significantly overall, and the skew has tested new lows again, leading large players in the options market to worry that the downward trend in BTC may not be contained. Put options also saw consistently high trading volume, with the top five traded options all being puts, primarily with a strike price of $70,000, indicating strong bearish sentiment. Even the fourth-ranked option was a March put option at $55,000!

Ad*m@Greeks.live

📢 Weekly Trading Data Update 📈 Between January 27th and February 1st, http:/Greeks.Live saw a notional trading volume of $253,633,354 ($254 million) through block trades, including $237 million from Deribit and $16 million from OKX. | Top 5 block trades executed last week through http:/Greeks.Live. Thank you for your support.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

【The Cook Capital Market View】 RV: 1d/1w/1m/2m/3m/6m are 58.25%/56.35%/42.31%/41.03%/44.64%/41% respectively. RV has risen significantly over the past day and week, with all RVs now exceeding 40%. IV: 1w/1m/2m/3m/6m are 47.64%/43%/42.81%/43%/45% respectively. Currently, based on the IV/RV difference, there are still not many trading opportunities.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

[January 30 Options Settlement Data] 91,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.48, a maximum support level of $90,000, and a notional value of $7.6 billion. 435,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.68, a maximum support level of $3,000, and a notional value of $1.19 billion. Today is the first monthly settlement day after the annual settlement, with 25% of total open interest in options expiring, totaling nearly $9 billion. Call options dominate. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices entered a sharp downward trend yesterday. The panic that had recently eased has once again gripped the crypto market, and we are still experiencing the aftershocks of the sharp decline in the fourth quarter of last year. Currently, the $80,000 level for BTC and the $2,500 level for ETH both provide strong support. Looking at the main options data, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has increased significantly. The implied volatility of BTC's main term options is around 45%, and that of ETH's main term options is around 60%, both at their highest levels this year. This week, options trading volume and proportion remained high, mainly due to rollover demand. Market makers and active traders currently have ample cash on hand and a strong willingness to trade, with the greatest demand coming from put-back hedging.

Ad*m@Greeks.live

Tomorrow is the first monthly settlement date of 2026, with over 25% of options positions set to settle. As expected, the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, and there have been no major events recently, resulting in a relatively stable market. Implied volatility (IV) is continuing to decline. In the second half of the month, Bitcoin fell back into its trading range. Currently, the resistance at $90,000 and the support at $86,000 are both strong. Market expectations for volatility are also continuing to decrease, and there are no immediate factors indicating a breakout. Recently, a large influx of institutional holdings into exchanges has put significant liquidity pressure on the crypto market. Crypto-related US stocks have also been relatively weak, and market sentiment is gradually becoming pessimistic. Various conflicts and the rise of FUD (Fud) are also gaining momentum.

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