Huma

Huma

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"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who taught themselves good because they had no claws." - Nietzsche

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Signal Clone Analysis

Bought a long term bag of MOH here after it dumped 30% on bad earnings. They have solid fundamentals and should trade significantly higher towards EOY, especially after democrats win the midterms.

Shorted some HYPE.

Believe this latest gold bubble was a top for the big debasement narrative for the foreseeable future. Global bond yields (ex Japan) are stable and have been stable for the past year. Fiat debasement is inevitable but it's not going to happen overnight.

Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.

Around 70-72k will provide a high R/R opportunity to long if/when we get it. It's a level with significant importance, on par with 100k. Held as resistance for 8 months until we breached through it on Trump's election win.

So Warsh wants to do QT over the long run, thus strengthening the USD. Trump wants weaker USD. What if he simply counters Warsh by enforcing the Fed’s third mandate? I.e. printing more money using Treasury and then forcing Warsh to buy up the bonds.

One of Trump’s main goals this term has been to reshore manufacturing, and for that he needs to significantly devalue the dollar. Against other currencies, against home prices, against stocks, against gold and other commodities, against anything. Viewed through this lens, it explains many of the actions he’s taken over the past year, including establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Not to mention that currency devaluation will also help alleviate the debt crisis. And what’s more, China is doing the same playbook by trying to devalue the CNY, but mostly through gold.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: President Trump says he wants to "drive housing prices up for people who own their homes." "For people that own their homes, we are going to keep them wealthy," Trump says.

Towards the end of next year, we will have midterm elections. It is very likely (imo 90%) that Dems will win the House. Historically, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, the SP500 returns only 3.2% on average (compared to the 8.4% average, and 14.5% in the 12 months post midterm).

Decent FOMC, riding BTC and HYPE

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