比特傻

比特傻

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Crypto投资爱好者、脚本小子、Meme玩家。自诩为傻，独立观点。

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My buddy makes hundreds of thousands a day in the lending business. A few days ago, he sent me a screenshot of his daily income – 630,000 yuan – saying it's like that every day, and his income is still growing rapidly. Tonight at dinner, he was urging my friend to work harder, saying he's just a small fry in the lending industry but still earns this much, something the big players can't even imagine. He was earnestly advising my friend that the crypto has no future and wanted him to join him in the lending industry. He said that of his old buddies, my friend was the smartest, but the reason he's doing poorly is because the crypto is bad, especially in the lending industry. Some of the brothers involved in reverse cross-border e-commerce are already making tens of millions in monthly profits. Silly Brother lowered his head, remaining silent. The pressure of this meal was immense; one could feel the brothers' sincerity and their regret that Silly Brother had gone astray.

Today, I'm continuing to analyze Buffett's recent moves. Why do we need to study this? Because the crypto can now be seen as a long-tail related market in the United States. Studying the crypto in isolation won't reveal the major trends; you must look to the US stock market, the source of those trends, for answers. And Warren Buffett, the mentor in the US market, is an inescapable trend indicator for me. Let's first look at Buffett's recent speeches. Holding 350 billion in cash: Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more than $350 billion in cash and short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). What is this percentage? It's approximately 35% of Berkshire Hathaway's total assets. But Berkshire also has a lot of unlisted cash cows like railroads and energy. If we exclude privately held companies and only consider publicly traded companies that are readily tradable, what percentage of their portfolio should be in cash? It's roughly 55%. What does this mean? This marks the first time in Buffett's history that his cash and cash equivalents have exceeded his stock holdings. In the same week as the interview, they bought another $17 billion in Treasury bonds. Buffett frankly stated: Hoarding such a massive amount of cash and its equivalents is not for a 5% return. At this moment, it is the most extreme operation in Buffett's history. Even Apple, which he favors the most and is known as the best company, is being reduced. How he views the market is self-evident. Is he really getting old? Why is there such a big difference between Buffett's strategy and the AI players around him who All In, go all out, and aggressively charge in? It's time to eat, we'll talk about it tomorrow.

"Soap and Cake" Soap: My mom started talking about her sad past today. She mentioned that when she first married into my dad's family, they were poor. My dad went to work, and his company gave him a bar of soap every month. Suddenly, they discovered that the soap was missing one month. After searching for a long time, they found that my grandma had taken it. My mom tried to take the soap back. My grandma said: "I took my son's soap, not yours!" My mom was stunned and couldn't refute it for a moment. She could only wash the clothes without soap. She held a grudge for 30-40 years because of a bar of soap. She still feels wronged. My grandma also talked about her sad past when she was young. She said that when she first married into my grandpa's family, it was during a famine. The family finally managed to bake a large pancake. Before my grandma could even eat it, my grandpa took it out and invited the relatives and neighbors in the village to eat. In the end, my grandma and the children didn't get enough to eat. My grandma resented my grandpa for neglecting the family and his wife and children. She held a grudge for almost 60-70 years because of a pancake. She still feels wronged. My silly brother asked my silly sister-in-law: What do you think of this soap and pancake? My silly sister-in-law, scrolling through her phone, laughed and said: These are all trivial matters, far less than the hurt you caused me. My silly brother laughed and said: Look at the way you eat!

Yesterday, I looked at research reports on over a dozen stocks. Out of curiosity, I also took a look at Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway, what a boring company! What are they controlling stakes in? Energy, insurance, railroads, manufacturing, retail. Coca-Cola. All very stable businesses. I can't find anything particularly cool. Conservative strategy. When the market is slightly down, they hoard cash, waiting for a crash. Then, when interest rates are high, they collect interest on float. Despite using float, their debt ratio is just over 25%, much lower than most high-tech companies. Very healthy. Impregnable, extremely cautious, and determined not to make mistakes. PB 1.43, haha. Almost no premium. A company that extracts time surplus. Their moat is a combination of "insurance float + capital allocation." This kind of financial engineering is unique in the industry, almost a monopoly. Unreplicable. This is a company that has washed away the superficiality, is simple and profound, a textbook example of investment strategy. I take off my hat, deeply respectful. I bow deeply, head bowed in deep thought.

"Improving Your US Stock Market Skills" These past few days, with the help of a friend, I've been quickly reading stock research reports. Taking advantage of the bear market, I'm improving my US stock market skills. Unavoidably, I've been looking at the "Seven Sisters" of US stocks and Chinese concept stocks these past few days. Here are some insights. Levels of Stock Research: 1. Understanding Financial Statements and Valuation; This is an arithmetic problem. Apple, a hardware company, has a gross profit margin of 44%. Tesla? 18%, BYD? A little over 20%. Google and Tencent, software platforms, have around 60%. Apple is truly remarkable, achieving such high gross profit margins through hardware. This also explains why Apple doesn't manufacture cars: Compared to its existing businesses, car manufacturing isn't a good business for Apple. 2. Then, from an arithmetic perspective, there are overvaluations and undervaluations. Tencent: 14x PE Google: 25x PE Apple: 30x PE Tesla: 300x PE Circle: Negative PE Why? Because businesses vary in quality, understanding good businesses means understanding their competitive advantages and returns on capital. Because future potential differs, understanding revenue growth rates is crucial. 3. Domestic internet giants are generally significantly weaker than the "Seven Sisters" (a group of seven major Chinese internet companies). This is because they have smaller market share and weaker network effects. Without sufficient network effects, they cannot sustain the high-density incubation of innovation like the "Seven Sisters." The only company worth mentioning is Pinduoduo (PDD), which, based on its financial statements, is surprisingly cheap. A good business can be bought at a P/E ratio of 30. However, PDD's P/E ratio is only 8. How can this be explained? Is it due to the suppression of Chinese concept stocks and being outdated in the AI era? Neither is sufficient. Therefore, many analysts believe that PDD is undervalued.

In the last bear market, Op and Arb made those who exploited projects the happiest people in the world. In this bear market, BP and EdgeX turned those who exploited projects into the most hostile people. Last time, they exploited project teams; this time, they are the ones being exploited. Nothing in this world is more painful than this.

Today, I finally had some free time and reread Peter Thiel's investment insights. To be honest, it was a reread of old material; I read his books 12 years ago. He talks about secrets, or a kind of informational advantage, about monopolies and competition, about the power law of venture capital, and so on. Perhaps his ideas did help me somewhat capitalize on BTC and ETH. But why didn't I feel as excited reading it today as I did 12 years ago? Every great investor leaves behind a wealth of investment reflections. From Graham, Buffett, Soros, Simons, and of course, Peter Thiel. What kind of investment insights can withstand the long-term test of the market and remain relevant? Most of these are basic logics: For example, monopolies can create profits; For example, Munger's margin of safety; For example, Buffett's value investing; For example, Simons's short-term market failure. My feeling today is that these predecessors' insights can generally help you avoid pitfalls. These pitfalls, if not learned from the wisdom of those who came before, would likely be inescapable for most people. However, today's investors face challenges in a different context than in the past. Their own experience, mindset, cognition, and even intuition are the core factors driving investment results. However, according to the law of large numbers, the mainstream thinking of today's investors is mediocre. The brilliant parts, for most people, can only be seen in hindsight.

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