#What Powell said: Summary of Powell's press conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: In a good position; the number of officials supporting a shift to a neutral bias has increased; the next meeting may consider changing the current accommodative stance; no one is currently calling for a rate hike, and those who disagree with the accommodative stance are not inclined to raise rates; if a rate hike or cut is needed, signals will be sent and actions will be taken; energy and tariff issues need to be observed before considering a rate cut.
2. Inflation Outlook: Inflation is high, with recent inflation expectations rising, partly reflecting rising energy prices; the surge in energy inflation has not yet peaked; the prospect of rising core inflation is realistic; core PCE inflation is projected at 3.2%; tariff inflation should slow this year.
3. Economic Outlook: Economic activity is expanding robustly, but events in the Middle East have increased uncertainty, resulting in a highly uncertain economic outlook. Labor demand has weakened, while showing increasing signs of stabilization.
4. Regarding his future: After stepping down as chairman, he will continue to serve as a board member in a low-profile manner for an undetermined period and will leave the Federal Reserve at an appropriate time; he had intended to retire, but the government's actions left him with no other choice; he will not become a shadow chairman.
5. Market reaction: From the release of the statement to the end of Powell's speech, the overall changes in various assets were relatively small. Gold fluctuated by $35, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points, and interest rate futures pricing in interest rate cuts for the whole year remained at about 1.5 basis points.
6. #BTC is facing a crucial juncture, with the $75,000 level representing the last line of defense for the bulls and the first stage for the bears to break through. Today is Thursday, approaching Friday, and it's also the end of the month. Trump is speaking about hearing new plans for action against Iran, and the Nasdaq remains high, potentially dragging the market down. Those trying to buy the buy the dips for a rebound should exercise caution, avoid holding losing positions, and refrain from frequent averaging down. While short positions can be recovered from, long positions trapped here should only be stopped out.
