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Prasad Shetty
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Prasad Shetty
01-30
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Is Bitcoin setting up for a new all-time high? This isn’t about hype, it’s about macro conditions, capital flows, and institutional behavior. Here are 4 structural drivers + 1 historical signal worth watching 1⃣The Fed Pivot (Cost of Capital Cycle) Fed rates have been the most clear signal for Bitcoin’s PA Tight monetary policy (high rates) → liquidity drains → risky assets compress Easing cycle (rate cuts) → liquidity improves → risky assets re-rate higher In 2023, policy rates peaked to 4.33% and Bitcoin bottomed near $15.5K during maximum tightening pressure. the cost of capital declines, risk appetite increases, and capital typically moves out along the risk curve. 2⃣M2 Liquidity M2 money supply is a proxy for broad financial system liquidity. M2 is currently at a net positive of 6% During the last meaningful M2 contraction (-3%), Bitcoin traded near $20K amid constrained liquidity conditions. From a macro perspective, Bitcoin functions as a liquidity beta trade it benefits disproportionately when financial conditions loosen. 3⃣Structural Demand Shock: 401(k) One of the most under-discussed catalysts is retirement capital pipelines. Defined-contribution retirement systems represent a multi Trillion dollar capital pool. President Donald Trump has signed the executive order to include alternative assets in retirement plans The size of the US retirement industry is around $10T. Even a low single-digit allocation into crypto can represent $100B in potential flows. 4⃣Institutional Positioning (Smart Money flow) 13F filings shows that institutions are increasing their exposure to bitcoin, Abu dhabi investment corp said that bitcoin is turning into store of value, AL warda from UAE has added $520m in bitcoin, Harvard endowment fund increase their exposure by 257%, Morgan stanley has launched its own Bitcoin ETF 5⃣Gold → Bitcoin Rotation In prior cycles, strong performance in gold has preceded major Bitcoin expansions. post covid bitcoin saw a 500% surge post gold rally Capital first moves into defensive hard assets (gold) during macro uncertainty. As risk appetite returns, flows rotate toward higher-beta stores of value namely Bitcoin.
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