Today
Intel
Market
Earn
Settings
Account
Theme Selection
Light
Dark
Language
English
简体中文
繁體中文
Tiếng Việt
한국어
Followin APP
Mine Web3 Possibilities
App Store
Google Play
Log in
apsk32
249 Twitter followers
Follow
Posts
apsk32
01-28
Thread
#Thread#
Three ugly plots that demonstrate why you should stop treating power curve forecasts as "probabilities." This is the BTC/GOLD 0.01 quantile power curve fit calculated on 1 July 2022. A common extension of this analysis is to claim, "there's a 99% probability that BTC/GOLD will be above this trendline in the future." However, BTC/GOLD was only above that trendline for 16% of the next 1306 days. Not 99%. So, what do people do? They compute a new trendline and repeat the claim. "Actually, there's a 99% probability that BTC/GOLD will be above THIS trendline."
CRV
0.89%
apsk32
09-29
The btc/gold power curve is fighting against the ropes
apsk32
09-16
The tale of two signals. BTC/USD says we're elevated. BTC/GOLD says we're at rock bottom.
apsk32
08-28
That's why I track the time PL against gold as well. Nothing is perfect, but it at least attempts to account for the decreasing value of the dollar. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1961...
DOLLAR
0.2%
apsk32
08-21
Napkin math and drawn on a phone, but this is where $444,000 BTC/USD lands on this chart at today's gold price. I'm staying open minded to positive outcomes. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1958...
BTC
0.07%
apsk32
06-14
Some doubt that btc/gold will maintain its long-term trendline. Others believe gold will decline. I think they're mistaken and the btc/usd models underestimate bitcoin's upside potential. We're in the hard money era.
BTC
0.07%
apsk32
06-04
Bitcoin treasury companies won't prevent another bear market; they’re the reason it’ll happen again this cycle. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1930...
BTC
0.07%
Loading..