apsk32

apsk32

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Three ugly plots that demonstrate why you should stop treating power curve forecasts as "probabilities." This is the BTC/GOLD 0.01 quantile power curve fit calculated on 1 July 2022. A common extension of this analysis is to claim, "there's a 99% probability that BTC/GOLD will be above this trendline in the future." However, BTC/GOLD was only above that trendline for 16% of the next 1306 days. Not 99%. So, what do people do? They compute a new trendline and repeat the claim. "Actually, there's a 99% probability that BTC/GOLD will be above THIS trendline."

The btc/gold power curve is fighting against the ropes

The tale of two signals. BTC/USD says we're elevated. BTC/GOLD says we're at rock bottom.

That's why I track the time PL against gold as well. Nothing is perfect, but it at least attempts to account for the decreasing value of the dollar. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1961...

Napkin math and drawn on a phone, but this is where $444,000 BTC/USD lands on this chart at today's gold price. I'm staying open minded to positive outcomes. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1958...

Some doubt that btc/gold will maintain its long-term trendline. Others believe gold will decline. I think they're mistaken and the btc/usd models underestimate bitcoin's upside potential. We're in the hard money era.

Bitcoin treasury companies won't prevent another bear market; they’re the reason it’ll happen again this cycle. twitter.com/apsk32/status/1930...

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