1. Looking at TGA account balances and bank reserve balances, liquidity tightening is likely to accelerate starting April 10. Specifically: April 10-20 will be the peak period for liquidity draining, April 20-end of month TGA balance will start to decline from its peak, and by early May, the draining will basically end and liquidity will start to ease.
2. From the war perspective, Trump says the fighting might last another 2-3 weeks, which aligns perfectly with this liquidity draining/easing cycle.
3. From a technical analysis standpoint, although BTC is still struggling around the 66,000 level, the momentum is shifting downward and showing weakness. Evidence supporting a bearish outlook includes:
- Dropping to 66k is a 0.618 retracement support of the overall uptrend (60k-76k), with the focus shifting to the lower part of the range.
- 1D RSI is struggling below the midline, 1D MACD is underwater and red.
- The price has broken below the diagonal trendline; the move up from 64,939 to 69,286 was choppy, possibly developing into a double zigzag (see Chart 2).
Looking at the timeline, May 3-5 is a vacuum period for US stocks; the market opens on May 6, right as TGA draining and bank reserve drops kick in. Without any war-related factors, next week could see a pump and then a dump: Monday and Tuesday might be decent, but starting Wednesday, price action could turn bearish.
Note: This view is based on current evidence, but if Trump suddenly goes rogue and disrupts the rhythm, all bets are off (which is pretty normal).
twitter.com/Guilin_Chen_/statu...
