The crypto market's rebound is weak; can it catch up with the subsequent rise?
TL;DR
Over the past week (October 30th to November 6th), Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 5.6% and 12.1% respectively, wiping out approximately $300-400 billion in market capitalization. The "minor recovery" on November 6th lacked support from trading volume and technical moving averages. Continued net outflows from ETFs, uncertain macroeconomic policies, and selling by long-term on-chain holders have led to significant disagreement in the market regarding a "second surge." Considering on-chain data, technical indicators, derivatives, and social sentiment, most data points to a "phase of consolidation, not a reversal." If BTC fails to hold the $100,000 mark and ETH fails to hold $3,300 , there is still a high probability of retesting $98,000 and $3,200 respectively.
Core Analysis
1. Key Market Capitalization and Price Movements
| index | October 30 | November 6 | 7-day changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC price | $110,046 | $103,877 | -5.6% |
| ETH price | $3,897 | $3,427 | -12.1% |
| Total market capitalization | ~$3.9 T | ~$3.5 T | -8–10% |
| ETF fund flows | +$? | -$1.3 B (4 days) | Net outflow |
The main reason for the market decline was
- The reasons for the outflows from spot ETFs were: 1) four consecutive days of outflows; 2) spillover effects from stock market sell-offs involving the AI sector; and 3) leveraged liquidations ($2 billion). (CNBC)
2. Technical Analysis
| assets | RSI (1D) | MACD (1D) | Key support | Key resistance | Direction judgment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 37.1 (Oversold) | Histogram -707 | $99k / $101k | $105k / $109k | The rebound is a correction. |
| ETH | 34.7 (Oversold) | Histogram -50 | $3,200 / $3,345 | $3,500 / $3,700 | Weak fluctuations |
Derivatives: BTC total OI $68.6 B, 24h +2.1% ; ETH OI $39.6 B, 24h +5.4% , bulls are rebuilding but the magnitude is limited.
• The biggest pain point for options : BTC $104k / ETH $3,450 (November 6); the range of the long-short game basically overlaps with the current price, indicating that funds lack consensus on the direction.
• Potential liquidation zone : BTC bulls have accumulated $1.9 billion in the $100–102k range, and ETH bulls have accumulated $0.96 billion in the $3.30–3.35k range. A break below these levels could trigger a new round of panic selling.
3. On-chain fund flows and portfolio structure
- BTC : Net inflow of +8,006 BTC into exchanges over the past 7 days, corresponding to potential selling pressure of ~$800M; long-term holders have sold ~400k BTC within a month, causing the proportion of "new whales" holding to rise to 45%, indicating weak resilience to price drops. finance.yahoo
- ETH : Net outflow of -180,696 ETH during the same period. It seems like there is accumulation in the short term, but the theft of $117 million from Balancer on November 3 caused a sharp drop in DeFi TVL, which damaged confidence.
The NUPL indicator has fallen to 0.27 (a new low for the year), indicating that ETH has entered a deep panic zone and a technical short-term correction is likely. (beincrypto)
4. Social Emotions
| Sentiment Indicators | Values | Changes | |----------|------|------| | Fear & Greed Index | 20 (Extreme Fear) | Week-on-Week Change -19 | | Mainstream Twitter Views | 60% Believe in a Rebound, 40% Remain Skeptical |
Many influencers view this decline as a "mid-term bull market trap," but bears like Peter Schiff warn of a potential pullback to $95k .
Upward and downward scenario simulation
| Context | Triggering conditions | target position | probability* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upside: Corrective rebound | 1) ETFs see net inflows exceeding $300 million per day. 2) BTC has climbed back above $105k and daily trading volume is > $90 billion. | BTC $110–120k ETH $3,700–4,000 | 40% |
| Oscillation: Consolidation within a range | Macroeconomic policy remains unclear, and ETF outflows have slowed but not yet turned positive. | BTC $100–105k ETH $3,300–3,500 | 35% |
| Downside: Double bottom | 1) The Federal Reserve hinted at pausing interest rate cuts. 2) ETF daily outflow > $600 M 3) The support level was breached, triggering a large-scale liquidation of long positions. | BTC $95–98k ETH $3,100–3,200 | 25% |
*Based on a comprehensive score considering on-chain (50% weight), derivatives (30%), and macroeconomics (20%).
in conclusion
The current rebound is more of a technical correction than a trend reversal. Continuous net outflows from ETFs, high-level whale distribution, and macroeconomic uncertainties have resulted in a lack of sustained funds for long positions. A bottom can long be confirmed if BTC stabilizes above $105k and is accompanied by a recovery in trading volume and liquidity; otherwise, a break below $100k/$3,300 will trigger a chain reaction of long liquidation, pushing the price towards the $98k/$3,200 area. Investors should pay attention to ETF fund flows, the shift in the biggest pain point of options trading , and changes in on-chain access , and control leverage and set hard stop-loss orders to cope with possible downward volatility.