UNI's Phase-by-Phase Pressure & a16z Governance Controversy Overview Report
Data as of 15:30 UTC on November 6, 2025.
TL;DR
UNI experienced a drop of approximately 37% in October and November, with its price approaching the key support level of 5 USDT and consistently trading below all moving averages. The combination of long squeeze in derivatives and negative macroeconomic factors led to this period of pressure. Meanwhile, a16z still controls about 4-5% of the total UNI supply, maintaining its actual governance influence through delegated voting, sparking an ongoing debate about "decentralization vs. capital." The short-term direction depends on whether the 5 USDT level is breached and the subsequent direction of the fee-switch governance mechanism.
Core Analysis
1. Market performance and technical aspects
| index | numerical values | 30-day changes | Structural judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | 5.28 USDT | -37% | At the end of a three-stage decline |
| Market capitalization | $3.33 billion | -10% | The rate of decline was slightly faster than that of the top 20 DEXs by market capitalization. |
| 24-hour trading volume | $195 million | Trading volume shrinks | Trading interest is cooling |
| Daily RSI | 34 | Nearly oversold | A technical rebound is possible. |
| MACD Histogram | -0.033 | Continuous convergence | The downward momentum is weakening. |
- Derivative open interest was $235 million, down 3.3% in 24 hours. Funding rates were slightly positive overall, indicating that long leverage was still being passively reduced.
- The long-term liquidation intensive layer is located at 4.90-5.00 USDT. If it falls below this level, it may trigger a chain of liquidations at the level of approximately 1 million USD, accelerating the bottoming process.
In summary, 5 USDT is a critical level in the near term; if it holds, the rebound target is 5.5-5.8 USDT; if it falls below, a rapid decline may occur below 4.9 USDT.
2. On-chain data: substantial in volume but lacking in value capture.
| 30-day cumulative | numerical values |
|---|---|
| DEX trading volume | US$166.3 billion |
| LP handling fee | $272 million |
| Agreement revenue | $0 (fee-switch not enabled) |
Uniswap maintains the highest trading activity in the DeFi industry: a peak daily trading volume of $10 billion over 30 days.
3. a16z Investment Landscape and Holding Influence
Funding Path: • 2020 - $1.8 million led by Seed • 2020 - $11 million led by Series A • 2022 - $165 million follow-on investment in Series B, valuing the project at $1.66 billion (Bloomberg ).
Holding and Delegation • Arkham tracking shows that a16z controls approximately 41.75 million UNI (market capitalization of approximately $315 million), distributed across 11 addresses, with approximately 40 million delegated to universities and research institutions. This mechanism allows for the revocation of delegation at any time, maintaining an implicit veto power. Arkham
Controversial Incident • In 2023, when voting against the deployment of BNB Chain, a16z used 15 million tokens to reject the LayerZero competing proposal, drawing criticism for "using its own investment to support its own holdings." CoinDesk
• In 2024-2025, the SEC's investigation into Uniswap listed a16z as a potential affiliate, reinforcing the "centralization risk" issue.
Overall, a16z satisfies both the decentralized narrative and the retention of control through a two-step approach of "delegation + withdrawal"—and still has significant influence on key issues (cross-chain bridge selection, fee-switch design).
4. Governance Progress and Community Tug-of-War
| time | Proposal/Event | result | a16z's stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | DUNA's legal framework is in place. | pass | Actively promote |
| 2025-10 | Commissioning the second round of 15 M UNI applications | Under review | Benefit |
| 2025-10 | Delegate award $500,000 | implement | Some agents won awards |
| 2025-Q1 Forecast | Fee-switch vote again | Pending | The game still exists |
The mainstream opinion in the community supports activating fee-switch to empower token holders, but there are concerns that VCs may obstruct it; at the same time, regulatory pressure is prompting the core team to seek a compliance route, exacerbating the divisions.
5. Social Emotion Overview
Over the past 30 days, Twitter discussions have focused on external regulatory threats and geopolitical blockades (Ukrainian users being blocked). Overall sentiment has been cautious, with criticism directed at government and compliance restrictions, and no clear alignment between FUD (Fundamental, Uncertain, and Unrealistic) factors. Direct criticism of a16z has been limited, but "VC control" has become a classic point of contention.
in conclusion
- Technical Analysis: UNI is at the end of a long-term downward channel, and 5 USDT is the short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment.
- Fundamentals: Uniswap continues to lead the industry in trading and fees, but the lack of fee-switch functionality means that UNI's valuation lacks cash flow support.
- Governance: a16z’s token holding + delegation structure is decentralized in form but can be centralized in substance, and key nodes can still influence decision-making; regulatory and fee-switch issues may continue to be the focus of the game.
- Investment Implications: If the price falls below 5 USDT without any realization of governance value, be wary of further declines; if it holds steady and positive progress is seen in the fee-switch, consider a rebound opportunity between 5.8 and 6.5 USDT.