Lighter TGE Outlook Analysis: Airdrop Expectations and Zero Fee Sustainability
TL;DR
Lighter, a perpetual DEX based on Ethereum L2, is currently in the pre-TGE stage and is expected to officially launch its token in December 2025. Airdrop expectations are extremely high (total tokens OTC price of $80-100), and the zero-fee advantage is expected to continue until 2026 and beyond under the HFT subsidy model. Based on analysis of similar projects, the airdrop hype can be sustained for 2-4 months .
TGE Timeline and Airdrop Expectations
Current status
- TGE Status : As of November 10, 2025, no tokens have been issued yet; it is currently in the Season 2 points mining phase.
- Expected time : Q4 2025 (highest probability in December)
- Market expectations : Polymarket indicates an 89-90% probability of TGE being completed by December 31, 2025.
Airdrop Mechanism Analysis
| Assignment Dimensions | Details | Expected value |
|---|---|---|
| Community allocation | 30-50% of the total supply will be allocated to long-term active users. | Compared to Hyperliquid's 31% |
| Integral conversion | Expected 1:1 or proportional conversion to $LIGHT tokens | OTC market: $80-100/point |
| Total distribution | Season 2 awards 250,000 points per week, accumulating to over 15 million points. | Top-tier wallets can earn $10,000-$100,000+ |
| Qualification Requirements | Mainnet active trading (recommended weekly trading volume of $50,000+) | Anti-witch, no self-trading points |
Compared to similar projects :
- Hyperliquid : 31% community allocation, valued at $19 billion, expected to maintain its popularity for 4-6 months. x.com
- dYdX : Each wallet holds thousands of US dollars, creating an "overnight riches" effect, with its popularity lasting 3-6 months.
- Jupiter : 388 million tokens distributed, hype lasting 1-2 months but Season 3 will continue the trend.
Zero transaction fee advantage and sustainability
Revenue Model Structure
Lighter's zero-fee strategy is based on differentiated pricing by "professional users subsidizing retail users" :
| User type | Maker Rates | Taker rates | Income contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard retail investor | 0% | 0% | Acquire traffic at zero cost |
| High-frequency traders | 0.002% | 0.02% | 70% of trading volume, daily revenue of $429,000 |
| LLP liquidity | Liquidation fee 1% | Annualized return 47-60% | Current TVL: $498 million |
Sustainability assessment
Short term (2025-2026) : Highly sustainable
- The CEO explicitly stated that TGE's post-contract fee will remain "zero or extremely low".
- The HFT subsidy model can generate monthly revenue of $20-40 million with a daily transaction volume of $20 billion.
- Current monthly income is $1.8 million (API fees only), with huge growth potential.
Medium to long term (after 2026) : Cautiously optimistic
- ZK optimizes infrastructure to reduce operating costs and supports scalable zero-fee operations.
- Product expansion (spot trading, cross-margin, RWA derivatives) provides new revenue streams
- Risk: Incentive dependency; subsequent token unlocking may affect trading volume.
Comparison of competitive advantages :
| project | Retail investor rates | Monthly transaction volume | Sustainability rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lighter | 0%/0% | $272 billion | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Hyperliquid | 0.015%/0.045% | $303 billion | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| GMX | 0.1% opening/closing fee | lower | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Airdrop popularity duration prediction
Periodic analysis based on historical data
Phase 1: Outbreak Period (1 month after TGE)
- Trading volume surged 2-3 times, similar to the market share surge during Hyperliquid's token launch.
- Social media discussion reached its peak, with the "wealth creation effect" attracting a surge of new users.
Phase Two: Stabilization Period (2-4 months after TGE)
- The hype gradually returned to rationality, and trading volume stabilized at a high level.
- Long-term user retention based on product strength, with zero transaction fees becoming a core advantage.
Phase 3: Differentiation period (4-6 months after TGE)
- Early farming profits were realized, and some speculative funds withdrew.
- During the real PMF verification period, competitiveness is maintained through technological innovation and ecosystem expansion.
Community sentiment analysis
Positive factors :
- Delta's neutral arbitrage strategy was active, with $15 million in trading this week, earning 135 points (approximately $12,000 OTC value). (x.com )
- Its technical robustness has been recognized, and it has performed exceptionally well during large-scale liquidation events, avoiding a chain reaction of liquidations.
- Key opinion leaders (KOLs) are generally optimistic about its prospects, and it's being discussed alongside Hyperliquid on data platforms like Dune.com.
Potential FUD :
- Some argue that the farming window opened too late, and new entrants were "harvested" (i.e., exploited).
- Anxiety about the uncertainty of TGE timing, but overall confidence was not significantly affected.
in conclusion
Backed by top investors like a16z, and featuring ZK technology innovation and a zero-fee strategy, Lighter has the potential to become a major airdrop project in 2025-2026. The expected airdrop value is considerable ($10K-$100K+ per wallet), and the zero-fee advantage is sustainable in the medium term (at least until 2026) under the HFT subsidy model . The hype cycle is expected to last 2-4 months , comparable to successful cases like Hyperliquid. Key risks lie in the TGE delay and subsequent product execution; it is recommended to continuously follow the latest updates from the official channel @Lighter_xyz.