Previous Contract Trading Summary (Part 2) Continuing from the previous article, this section discusses the dialectical thinking behind contract trading and risk control. Some readers commented that it's unclear whether the current market is in a bottoming-out or high-level consolidation phase. In other words, what if the price breaks below the 833-921 range, even below 8 or lower? This could trigger a deep bear market. Of course, this isn't entirely impossible. #Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis Since the market's 20% drop in November, it has been consolidating between 806 and 945. While it briefly broke through 945, it didn't hold and continued to fluctuate. From a macro perspective, unless there are anticipated negative factors, further panic and a subsequent price drop are unlikely. These factors mainly include Trump's tariffs (the Greenland tariffs have ended, but new Canadian tariffs are expected), escalating geopolitical influences, Japanese interest rate hikes, and a US economic recession. Any escalation of these factors will further increase panic and negatively impact prices. However, astute observers know that the impact of the aforementioned events is limited (except for the US economy, which is not yet in recession) and may not necessarily trigger widespread panic. Furthermore, panic can be quickly reversed. In other words, the decline may not be very deep. Of course, this assumes negative news expectations. However, sometimes even without news, when liquidity is extremely low, the market may still experience a sudden drop, albeit a limited one. Once liquidity recovers, prices will rebound. This has happened many times in the past. In summary, your macroeconomic assessment indicates a bottoming-out consolidation, meaning you are optimistic that new positive expectations will lead to an upward trend (rebound). Therefore, from a price movement perspective, the bottoming-out consolidation range is 833-921.

My logic is that history never simply repeats itself a third time. I feel the third time will be different.

you are right