In 2026, the competitive logic in the public blockchain sector will shift from technological opposition to an evolutionary framework converging with Ethereum. Ethereum, as a paradigm leader in institutionalization and modularization, has built a mature ecosystem of "mainnet settlement layer + L2 execution layer." Solana, as a high-performance challenger, is accelerating its convergence with the industry standards established by Ethereum through its modular transformation of Firecanver and institutional adaptation strategies. The market's core focus revolves around two major questions: " Can Ethereum maintain its decentralized foundation while attracting traditional capital ?" and " Can Solana overcome the risks of centralization through technological evolution and complete its identity reconstruction as an institutional-grade public blockchain ?"
On-chain data and institutional practices jointly confirm that the total TVL of the Ethereum ecosystem (mainnet+ L2) has reached $8.5345 billion (of which $7.5544 billion is from the mainnet, $515 million from Base, $316.8 million from Arbitrum, etc.), with 28 institutions holding 6.14 million ETH, accounting for 5.09% of the circulating supply. However, the risk of capital concentration and the conflict between decentralized principles are becoming increasingly prominent. Solana's total TVL is $916.7 million , equivalent to 10.7% of the Ethereum ecosystem. The Firecanver client will be launched on the mainnet in December 2025 to promote modular transformation, but whether the target performance of 1M+ TPS and the Alpenglow consensus upgrade can deliver institutional-grade stability remains to be verified.
In 2026, the ultimate competition between the two blockchains will essentially boil down to the differentiated questions of whether Ethereum can resolve its inherent contradictions through paradigm leadership, and whether Solana can achieve a leap in identity through convergent evolution . Ethereum needs to embrace institutional capital like BlackRock and absorb 80% of tokenized government bonds while maintaining its decentralized nature through mechanism design. Solana, in its pursuit of catching up, needs to overcome the centralized vulnerabilities of POH through Firecanver's modular architecture and node governance optimization, completing its identity reconstruction from a "retail transaction chain" to a "high-performance infrastructure recognized by institutions." The progress in resolving these two major issues will directly determine the retention quality of the $19.2 billion ETH DAT and $2.6 billion Solana DAT funds.
1. Introduction: From Technical Opposition to Industry Standard Convergence
The core narrative of the early public blockchain race was the paradigm shift between Ethereum's "modular layering" and Solana's "high-performance monolithic" approach. However, as the blockchain ecosystem has moved from an infrastructure race to the stage of institutional application implementation, the competitive landscape has shifted from a clash of technical routes to latecomers converging on industry standards : Ethereum, with its first-mover advantage and deep ecosystem, has become the de facto standard and paradigm leader for institutional public blockchains; Solana, as a high-performance challenger, is accelerating its convergence with Ethereum's institutional adaptation framework, modular thinking, and compliance system through technological evolution and strategic adjustments.
This asymmetric convergence is first reflected in Ethereum's leading position in the industry. On-chain data shows that the total TVL of the Ethereum ecosystem reaches $8.5345 billion , of which the mainnet for$7.5544 billion, Base for $515 million, Arbitrum for $316.8 million, Polygon for $117.1 million, and Optimism for $31.2 million, accounting for 65.9% of the global DeFi market's TVL. This data not only reflects the advantage of scale of funds, but also verifies that Ethereum's modular architecture of " mainnet as a secure settlement layer and L2 supporting high-frequency execution " has become an industry consensus: the vigorous development of L2 such as Base and Arbitrum is essentially an extension and verification of Ethereum in different scenarios. In contrast, Solana's total TVL is $916.7 million , only 10.7% of the Ethereum ecosystem, and its fund size and ecosystem maturity are still in the catching-up stage.
Secondly, the allocation logic of institutional capital reveals Ethereum's standard status. 28 institutions hold 6.14 million ETH, accounting for 5.09% of the circulating supply. Bitmine alone holds 4.17 million ETH and stakes 1.685 million ETH to obtain an APY of 2.8-3.5%. 19 institutions hold 18.319 million SOL, accounting for 2.96% of the circulating supply. Forward holds 6.91 million SOL specifically to support the Firedancer validator. In terms of holding size, the value of institutional holdings in ETH far exceeds that in SOL. In terms of allocation strategies, ETH institutions mainly focus on "long-term staking + stable returns," while SOL institutions focus on "infrastructure support + network optimization." This difference reflects the different positioning of the two chains in the eyes of institutions: Ethereum is a mature store of value and financial infrastructure, while Solana is a high-potential target that requires continuous investment to improve stability.
More importantly, Solana is converging with the modular and institutional standards established by Ethereum . Technically, the Firecanver client went live on the mainnet on December 12, 2025, introducing a "modular tile" architecture for fault isolation and independent upgrades, highly consistent with Ethereum's modular philosophy. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade plan is scheduled to activate in mid-2026, optimizing decentralization through out-of-band voting (Votor) and weighted propagation (Rotor), addressing institutional compliance demands for node governance. Strategically, the Solana Foundation actively incorporated DAT institutional suggestions to optimize network stability. Actions such as Western Union integration and the SOL spot ETF surpassing $1 billion AUM are all examples of Solana learning from and imitating Ethereum's "institutional adaptation + compliance priority" strategy.
In "Crypto Theses 2026," Messari sharply points out that Ethereum faces the risk of becoming a "settlement dump" after the Cancun upgrade, and needs to uphold its decentralized bottom line while embracing traditional capital; Solana needs to shift from meme speculation, which accounts for 80% of transactions, to a sustainable revenue model, and resolve the centralized risks of the POH mechanism. These contradictions reveal the essence of convergent evolution: Ethereum, as the leader, needs to resolve its internal contradictions to consolidate its standard status; Solana, as a follower, needs to complete its convergence with the Ethereum standard through technological upgrades and strategic transformation, realizing a reconstruction of its identity from a "retail transaction chain" to "institutional-level infrastructure."
2. Core Convergence: A Unified Logical Framework for Public Blockchain Development
Both Ethereum and Solana have moved beyond the stage where technology determined valuations and have shifted to a dual-driven model of ecosystem vitality and capital quality. The core sign of this is that the value anchor has shifted from traditional narratives such as TPS and gas fees to ecosystem and capital dimensions such as scenario adaptability, application retention rate, and the quality of institutional funding .
2.1 Value Underpinnings: Ethereum-led Institutional Infrastructure and Solana's Differentiated Path
In this transformation, Ethereum has established an industry standard that supports value thanks to its first-mover advantage and deep ecosystem, while Solana is gradually moving closer to this standard in its catch-up process .
The Ethereum ecosystem, with a TVL of $8.5345 billion, accounts for 65.9% of the DeFi market , becoming the absolute core platform for institutional RWA deployments. Of the $7.5544 billion TVL on the mainnet, stablecoin protocols like Aave and Ethena, and RWA projects like Ondo Finance, form the foundation of institutional-grade financial infrastructure, supporting 80% of tokenized US Treasury bonds. In the L2 ecosystem, Base's $515 million TVL and Arbitrum's $316.8 million TVL serve as successful validations of modular strategies: the mainnet as a secure settlement layer and L2 supporting high-frequency execution have become the paradigm standard for public chain expansion . A Grayscale report shows that Ethereum dominates stablecoins, DeFi TVL, and tokenized US Treasury bonds; these scenarios share the commonality of requiring highly secure, compliant, and complex institutional-grade applications. In its 2026 outlook, BlackRock explicitly positioned Ethereum as "the only settlement layer standard for stablecoins and digital liquidity," emphasizing its crucial role in bridging TradeFi.
Solana ranks in the second tier with a TVL of $916.7 million , equivalent to 10.7% of the Ethereum ecosystem. It has built user barriers in scenarios such as memes and high-frequency trading, but its funding scale and scenario maturity are still in the catching-up stage. On-chain data shows that Solana DEX's trading volume in the past 30 days was approximately $12.666 billion. Although its TVL is only 10.7% of the Ethereum ecosystem, its trading activity far exceeds that of the mainnet. The extremely low average transaction cost of <$0.01 makes high-frequency trading and social applications possible for millions of users.
The evolving role of DAT funding further confirms this convergence. Ethereum's DAT funding focuses on "long-term allocation + network security contribution" : Bitmine holds 4.17 million ETH and stakes 1.685 million to earn 2.8-3.5% APY, transforming institutional funds into long-term locked-up assets for network security; SharpLink holds 865,000 ETH, focusing on staking rewards and reducing circulating supply volatility. Solana's DAT funding, on the other hand, emphasizes "infrastructure support + network optimization" : Forward holds 6.91 million SOL deployed for staking and lending, specifically supporting Fireracer validator clients; SOL Strategies manages $1.24 billion in delegated SOL to validators, directly strengthening network security. This difference reflects Solana's adoption of Ethereum's institutional adaptation model : shifting from purely speculative allocation to infrastructure investment, but the quality of fund retention still needs improvement through upgrades to Fireracer and Alpenglow.
According to a16z's "State of Crypto 2025" report, Ethereum + L2s remains the preferred destination for new developers, but Solana's developer interest has grown by 78% in two years. This data validates that the ecosystem's vitality attracts developers and users, while institutional capital provides liquidity and value support. Solana is replicating Ethereum's successful "ecosystem + capital" dual-engine model.
2.2 Ecological Governance: From Community-Led to Collaborative Governance of "Community + Institutions"
Decentralized community governance was once a core feature of public blockchains, but the influx of institutional capital has driven both blockchains to transform into a collaborative governance model of "community + institutions." This transformation is not a simple transfer of power, but an inevitable choice to find a dynamic balance between the decentralized foundation and institutional needs .
When advancing core issues such as L2 revenue sharing proposals and restaking mechanism optimization, the Ethereum community needs to fully consider the compliance and return stability demands of institutions like BlackRock . On-chain data shows that Bitmine alone holds 3.45% of the ETH supply in Ethereum DAT and continues to buy to reach its target of 5%. This highly concentrated capital structure gives institutions significant influence in governance decisions. For example, in the restaking mechanism optimization issue, institutions tend to lower technical barriers and provide standardized, low-risk or even risk-free return products to attract more traditional capital; however, the community worries that this will lead to capital oligopoly and erode the decentralized foundation of distributed nodes. When discussing L2 revenue sharing proposals, the core demand of institutions is to establish a predictable revenue-sharing mechanism to ensure the mainnet directly benefits from L2 prosperity, while the community wants to emphasize the dividend rights of small and medium-sized nodes to prevent revenue from concentrating in the hands of leading institutions.
In designing the Apenlow upgrade plan, the Solana Foundation proactively incorporated suggestions from DAT institutions regarding network stability and node governance, avoiding a disconnect between technical optimization and capital demands . On-chain data shows that 19 institutions hold 18.319 million SOL tokens, but the top 5 holders control approximately 85%, indicating extremely high concentration. These institutions raised specific requirements during the Apenlow upgrade: expanding the number of POH timestamp nodes from 3 to 12 and introducing a rotation mechanism to reduce single points of failure and censorship risks; optimizing the Firedancer validator client and strengthening the spam transaction filtering mechanism to avoid historical downtime caused by client bugs and dust attacks. The Solana Foundation adopted these suggestions in its technology roadmap, demonstrating the substantial influence of institutional capital on network evolution.
The core of this co-governance model is finding a balance between decentralized foundations and institutional needs . Ethereum strengthens its quantum and censorship resistance capabilities through Peer DAS and ZK-EVM, while attracting institutions through RWA compliance adaptation; Solana enhances network resilience through the Firedancer client, while leveraging high performance to drive the rise of native applications. Fidelity's 2026 outlook emphasizes that DAT drove the ETH price rebound from a low of $1,472 in April 2025 to a high of $4,832 in August, validating the value support recognized by institutions; while Galaxy, in its 26 predictions on December 18, 2025, points out that Solana needs to shift from a meme-based model to a revenue model, but the inflation reduction proposal will be rejected in 2026, suggesting that monetary policy adjustments will face a game between the community and institutions.
Both blockchains recognize that purely community-driven approaches are insufficient to support large-scale institutional funding, while excessive appeasement of institutions erodes the core attributes of public blockchains. Collaborative governance has become an inevitable choice . Vitalik Buterin emphasizes Ethereum's priorities for 2026: sovereignty, scalable ZK-EVM/PeerDAS, and reduced reliance on centralized services—a path explored to uphold the foundation of decentralization amidst the institutionalization wave. Solana, through its DAO governance mechanism for node entry and exit, and the establishment of a timestamped data verification system, attempts to optimize the decentralization of POH within a high-performance architecture. This collaborative governance model of "community + institution" constitutes a shared choice for both blockchains in the institutionalized era.
2.3 Target Transformation: From General Infrastructure to Scenario-Based Value Hub
The early vision of a single public blockchain supporting all scenarios has been proven false by the market, and public blockchains need to transform into scenario-based value hubs. In this transformation, Ethereum has established its paradigm position as a "global financial settlement layer" thanks to its first-mover advantage and deep ecosystem, while Solana seeks differentiated survival in vertical scenarios such as high-frequency trading and is gradually moving towards standards recognized by institutions .
Ethereum focuses on the narrative of the global financial settlement layer, building institutional-grade financial infrastructure and dominating scenarios such as stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA, becoming a bridge between TradeFi and Crypto. Solana, on the other hand, focuses on high-frequency trading scenarios, gaining advantages in areas such as Memes and DePIN, and handling massive user interactions with its low fees and high TPS. A 21Shares report points out that Solana performs exceptionally well in terms of speed, engagement, and revenue, spanning scenarios such as DeFi, Memes, DePIN, and AI. However, this positioning essentially seeks a differentiated survival space outside the institutionalized track dominated by Ethereum.
However, Solana is moving closer to Ethereum's institutional standards through technological upgrades and strategic adjustments . The launch of the Firedancer client on the mainnet, introducing a modular architecture, the Alpenglow consensus upgrade plan optimizing decentralization and compliance, Western Union integration, and the SOL spot ETF surpassing $1 billion in AUM all demonstrate Solana's efforts to establish itself as a "high-performance infrastructure recognized by institutions." However, data such as Ondo Finance's TVL of only $248.64M deployed on Solana and an institutional DAT retention rate of <40% indicate that Solana is still catching up in terms of institutional application development. It needs to deliver on its stability promises through upgrades to Firedancer/Alpenglow to truly align with Ethereum's standards .
Coinbase's monthly institutional report states that Ethereum is the institutional agent of RWA, while Solana excels in speed, engagement, and revenue. Although their narratives differ, they are not mutually exclusive. This "differentiated but not antagonistic" relationship essentially means that Ethereum has established industry standards and a leading position, while Solana, seeking differentiated survival in vertical scenarios, is moving towards the institutionalized, modular, and compliant standards established by Ethereum through technological evolution and strategic adjustments . Together, they are driving the blockchain from infrastructure competition to a new stage of high-quality application implementation.
3. Dilemma: The Challenge of Differentiation within a Convergence Framework
Under a unified development logic, Ethereum and Solana still face their respective core challenges. These challenges stem from the inherent differences in their technical architecture and development paths, and are also key to whether they can break through growth bottlenecks. On-chain data and institutional reports reveal that the unique challenges of both chains revolve around the theme of "how to maintain core attributes during institutional expansion," but their specific manifestations are quite different.
3.1 Ethereum: The Decentralization Erosion Challenge Under the Invasion of Traditional Capital
As a benchmark for public blockchain ecosystems, Ethereum's decentralized attributes are facing unprecedented erosion as it integrates traditional capital and RWA scenarios. This erosion is not a single-dimensional risk, but a systemic challenge that permeates capital structure, governance discourse, and cybersecurity , becoming the core issue determining whether Ethereum can maintain its identity as a decentralized finance infrastructure.
Capital concentration has become a core hidden danger, directly threatening governance equality and node decentralization . On-chain data reveals a grim reality: the CR5 (concentration of the top 5 institutions) of Ethereum DAT funds exceeds 75%, forming a closed loop of "capital holding → network governance → profit acquisition". 28 institutions hold a total of 6.14 million ETH (accounting for 5.09% of the circulating supply, and this proportion is still expanding). This highly concentrated capital structure has led to Ethereum's governance decisions gradually tilting towards institutional interests— in core issues such as optimizing the restaking mechanism and designing the L2 profit-sharing scheme, the demands of institutions carry far more weight than those of small and medium-sized nodes and the community, and decentralized governance may become an appendage of "capital consensus" .
Messari also warned in its annual report that this concentration could lead to "institution-led network evolution" and "governance oligopoly." Specifically, in restaking protocols such as EigenLayer, large institutions monopolize high-yield validation services due to their financial scale advantage, while small and medium-sized nodes cannot participate due to financial and technical barriers, resulting in restaking rewards being concentrated at the top. In the discussion of L2 profit-sharing proposals, institutions prefer a predictable fixed percentage of profit sharing, while the community hopes for dynamic dividends based on node contributions. The conflict between the two sides' demands may delay the implementation of key mechanisms.
The capitalization of Ethereum's Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism has further exacerbated this contradiction. Some institutions predict that Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) will exceed $80 billion by 2026, but its core participants remain large institutions and professional service providers: Bitmine has staked 1.26 million ETH, and SharpLink has staked 865,000 ETH. These institutions reduce costs and increase returns through large-scale operations, creating a competitive advantage over smaller nodes, and this gap will widen further after ETF staking is approved. The essence of PoS is the capitalization of network security, that is, providing security services for the Ethereum mainnet and other protocols and generating revenue by extending ETH staking to multiple AVSs. However, the concentrated participation of capital has shifted Ethereum's security model from distributed node protection to institutional capital backing. Once leading institutions adjust their strategies (such as large-scale redemption of staked ETH) or risk events occur (such as custodians being hacked), it will directly impact the foundation of network security .
A deeper contradiction lies in the fundamental conflict between "decentralized beliefs and institutional needs," a fundamental tension at the level of values . Traditional capital's demands for compliance, certainty, and stable returns naturally clash with Ethereum's pursuit of censorship resistance, permissionlessness, and node equality. Institutions like BlackRock position Ethereum as a "digital asset settlement layer," with their core demand being that Ethereum provide stable and compliant infrastructure —for example, the BlackRock BUIDL Fund requires 100% transparency in stablecoin reserves, auditable smart contracts, and BSA-compliant node operations. These requirements drive Ethereum towards becoming more regulated and auditable.
The community is concerned that excessively catering to institutional needs could turn Ethereum into a centralized institutional blockchain, causing it to lose its core value as a public blockchain . Some community members on Twitter have questioned whether institutions like BlackRock, by holding large amounts of ETH, could influence governance proposals and push Ethereum to introduce "auditable transaction" features (such as OFAC's blacklist of sanctioned addresses). If the PoS mechanism leans towards institutions, will smaller nodes gradually withdraw due to their lower returns, leading to the concentration of validators? These concerns are not unfounded. Although the number of Ethereum validators has exceeded one million, the top 10 validators control approximately 40% of the staked amount, indicating a concentration risk already exists.
How can Ethereum maintain its decentralized foundation of node decentralization and governance equality while accepting institutional funding from organizations like BlackRock? The progress in solving this problem in 2026 will directly determine the retention quality of the $19.2 billion ETH DAT funds and Ethereum's ultimate establishment as an institutional-grade financial hub.
3.2 Solana: The Core Dilemma of Apenlow's Upgrade
Solana, built around the POH mechanism, is a high-performance architecture that is converging towards Ethereum's modular, decentralized, and compliant standards through Alpenglow upgrades and the Firecanver client. However, in practice, the inherent limitations of its monolithic architecture create fundamental tensions in its convergence with standards, becoming a key constraint on its institutionalization process. Solana's dilemma lies in the paradox of " how to achieve convergence with Ethereum without sacrificing its high-performance advantages. " While the Alpenglow upgrade and Firecanver deployment have made some progress, whether it can achieve the leap from a "retail transaction chain" to an "institutionally recognized high-performance infrastructure" remains to be seen.
The core significance of the Alpenglow upgrade lies in its complete shift from the POH consensus mechanism to the PoS consensus mechanism , marking a significant turning point for Solana in aligning with Ethereum's decentralized standards. On-chain data shows that the SIMD-0326 proposal received 98.27% staker support in September 2025, with plans to activate the mainnet in the first half to mid-2026. This upgrade introduces the two core mechanisms, Votor and Rotor, echoing Ethereum's core demands for censorship resistance and node decentralization.
Alpenglow completely deconstructed the centralized architecture of early POH systems, which relied on a few timestamp nodes, by replacing global timestamp synchronization with local clocks, skipping voting, and fixed 400ms timeslots. This shift essentially reflects Solana's acknowledgment that the monolithic POH mechanism struggled to meet institutional standards in terms of decentralization and compliance, forcing it to reconstruct its consensus mechanism to align with the decentralized standards established by Ethereum.
The Firedancer client also went live on the mainnet on December 12, 2025, marking a significant step forward in Solana's transformation towards a modular architecture. Its core significance lies in introducing a modular tile architecture to achieve fault isolation and independent upgrades —a concept highly consistent with Ethereum's modular philosophy of optimizing performance through L2 layering. The modular design allows Solana to upgrade specific functional modules without affecting the entire network, reducing the systemic risk of downtime due to client bugs in the past. This shift reveals that Solana is abandoning a purely monolithic, high-performance approach and moving towards the modular, upgradeable, and fault-isolated industry standards established by Ethereum .
However, despite the progress brought by Alpenglow/Firedancer, Solana's monolithic architecture makes it difficult for it to reach the decentralization standards of the Ethereum ecosystem . Its notorious outages remain a significant obstacle to institutional trust, as its stability in extreme scenarios is yet to be verified . Solana experienced seven outages between 2023 and 2025: five due to client-side bugs (such as a vulnerability in Solana Labs' validator software causing consensus failure) and two due to dust attacks (such as NFT minting activities causing TPS bottlenecks and transaction backlogs leading to network paralysis). These historical issues have severely damaged Solana's reputation and become a major concern for institutional fund allocation.
While the Alpenglow/Firedancer upgrade optimized consensus and client performance, the Solana network still experienced brief congestion in early January 2026 : block confirmation delays reached 3 seconds (far exceeding the usual 0.4 seconds), TPS briefly dropped to around 400, and some transactions failed and were retried. Although the network was not completely interrupted, this incident once again exposed Solana's vulnerability under extremely high load scenarios. Specifically, when transaction volume surges suddenly, the dust attack filtering mechanism may not be able to completely prevent network congestion, and block confirmation delays will affect the user experience .
The report further points out that Solana's stability issues are closely related to its monolithic architecture. Ethereum distributes transaction load through L2 layering, with the mainnet only handling final settlement; high loads from a single application will not affect the entire network. In contrast, Solana, as a monolithic chain, processes all transactions at the same layer, meaning extreme loads from any application can impact overall network performance. Meme coin is projected to contribute approximately 80% of transaction volume in 2025. If blockchain games, AI agents, DePIN, and other applications launch on a large scale in 2026, the combined effect of multiple high-load scenarios could again trigger congestion or even outages.
Solana's core challenge is not technical optimization, but whether it can converge with Ethereum's institutionalized, modular, and decentralized standards without sacrificing its high-performance advantages, thus reshaping its identity from a "retail transaction chain" to an "institutionally recognized high-performance infrastructure." Maintaining network stability in high-load scenarios such as social media, gaming, and high-frequency trading in 2026 will significantly boost market confidence.
4. 2026 Trend Outlook: Overcoming Difficulties and Defining Identity
Based on the analysis of convergence logic and unique dilemmas, combined with on-chain data, institutional reports, and market narratives, I make the following judgments on the development trajectories of the two chains in 2026: Ethereum, as the leader, will consolidate its position as an institutional-grade financial hub, while Solana will need to overcome dilemmas to complete its convergence evolution and reconstruction towards institutional standards.
4.1 2026 H1: Stress Testing Period
Ethereum: Finding a dynamic balance between institutional capital and decentralization
Ethereum will benefit from a relatively mature ecosystem and higher institutional recognition. Its core task is to resolve the inherent contradictions of decentralization erosion while reaping the benefits of traditional capital .
- The total value locked in staking is expected to grow steadily: moving toward the $80 billion target. Leading institutions such as ETFs and Bitmine continue to buy and expand the staking scale, which will create new sources of revenue for security services on the mainnet.
- The L2 revenue sharing proposal continues to advance: The proposal put forward in discussions in communities such as Kanalcoin that "L2 will pay 20%-30% of transaction fees to the mainnet in the form of ETH, and then distribute them according to node contributions" will greatly strengthen the "value coordinator" narrative if it can achieve initial pilot or a clear timetable in the first half of the year.
- RWA and the institutionalization benefits of stablecoins: Ethereum TVL remains stable, and although mainnet gas revenue is low, RWA's dominance and stablecoin infrastructure form a moat for institutional-grade finance.
If the Clarity Act passes smoothly in the Senate, Bitwise's predicted "new high" scenario could materialize in the first half of the year. However, if the balancing mechanism is hindered, the decentralization erosion problem could be exacerbated by the continued inflow of DAT funds, triggering a risk of community split. Therefore, Ethereum's valuation will remain relatively stable, with lower volatility than Solana. The price may rise moderately and test the previous high of $5000, driven by catalysts such as institutional staking, clarity on L2 revenue sharing proposals, and the passage of the Clarity Act.
Solana: Entering a critical verification period for identity reconstruction
In January 2026, Amiko submitted the TARS proposal to the Solana Foundation, which expands x402 from a simple M2M payment standard into an AI Agent marketplace and on-chain reputation system resistant to Sybil attacks . Solana's core strategy is shifting from memecoin to building an AI Agent economic infrastructure through the x402 protocol .
Solana is entering a critical validation period that will determine its long-term identity. Its price and narrative will heavily depend on several dimensions, including: substantial progress in the decentralization of POH nodes and verifiable progress in the incubation of fat applications .
- Extreme network stability testing : Solana will face multiple high-load scenarios, including the launch of large-scale blockchain games, a resurgence of the meme craze, the explosive growth of x402 application scenarios, and the scaling up of DePIN applications. These technical indicators will verify whether Solana can improve its stability by aligning with Ethereum's modular/decentralized standards .
- Progress of the x402 strategy: If at least one x402 application enters the flywheel of "high performance → user retention → continuous revenue", Solana will initially verify the identity reconstruction path of " adapting to Ethereum standards while forming a differentiated advantage in the AI×Crypto track ".
- The shift in the quality of ETF/DAT fund retention: In the first half of the year, it is necessary to verify whether the infrastructure investment of leading institutions such as Forward can attract more long-term enabling DAT funds. This will verify whether Solana can transform from a "retail speculation chain" to "institutionally recognized high-performance infrastructure" .
Based on a comprehensive assessment , Solana is expected to exhibit high beta characteristics in the first half of the year: if it performs well across the aforementioned dimensions, strong ETF/DAT inflows will drive a rapid price increase, potentially testing the $200-250 range; conversely, underperformance will trigger significant volatility. The chaotic and unpredictable scenarios predicted by Galaxy may be even more pronounced with Solana.
4.2 2026 H2: Convergence and Localization under Unified Logic
Entering the second half of the year, the market's focus will shift from stress tests to determine whether the "exclusivity dilemma" can be resolved, to the verification phase where the success of the solution determines the final identity. Ethereum will solidify its paradigm-leading position as an institutional-grade financial hub, while Solana will show a clear path divergence based on the stress test results from the first half of the year .
Ethereum: Consolidating its status as an institutional-grade financial hub and a global financial settlement layer.
In the Ethereum context, if the L2 revenue sharing mechanism can be substantially implemented, or even just a clear timeline and initial pilot phase, it will greatly strengthen its narrative as a "value coordinator" and may attract more DAT funds aiming for long-term revenue sharing. The mainnet status as an "institutionally recognized global settlement layer" will be solidified.
Specific catalysts include: the mainnet staking value locked exceeding the $80 billion target, creating quantifiable risk-free income; DeFi TVL moving towards $1 trillion, RWA expanding to $12.5 billion+, further deepening its integration with TradeFi; and institutions such as BlackRock bringing more traditional funds into the Ethereum ecosystem through stablecoin bridges.
Vitalik emphasized that the scaling of ZK-EVM/PeerDAS will make significant progress in the second half of the year. For example, if PeerDAS expands from the mainnet pilot to a wider range of applications, it will support the long-term vision of "sovereignization + decentralized services" and attract institutional funds that focus on fundamentals.
These developments will solidify Ethereum's position as an "institutionally recognized global settlement layer standard," attracting long-term allocation funds focused on fundamentals . Even with obstacles to L2 revenue sharing, Ethereum will maintain its core value as an institutional-grade financial hub thanks to its mature ecosystem and dominant position in RWA/stablecoins.
Solana: Path Differentiation in Identity Reconstruction
Solana's performance in the second half of the year will be clearly divergent, depending on the results of the stress tests in the first half of the year, especially the effectiveness of the x402 strategy .
If it passes stress tests in the first half of the year, makes breakthrough progress in the AI Agent market and successfully incubates leading retention applications, and DAT funding shows a clear ecological synergy effect, then its positioning as a high-performance infrastructure that aligns with Ethereum standards will be initially validated.
In this scenario, Solana's valuation logic will shift from a speculative platform to an AI Agent economic infrastructure, making it a representative of L1 in the AI Agent era. Analogous to platform companies in the internet era that achieved high valuations based on user scale and advertising revenue, Solana will receive a valuation premium due to its first-mover advantage in the AI×Crypto convergence track.
Social media and institutional reports may reposition Solana as a "global AI agent economic infrastructure" and a "standard setter for the API economy in the Web3 era," which will attract funding and attention from the traditional AI industry and expand Solana's potential market space.
If the application incubation or AI Agent economic narrative falls short of expectations, DAT funding continues to be primarily driven by short-term speculation, or network stability issues arise again, then the narrative may be forced to be revised.
In this scenario, the market may reposition Solana as a "high-performance computing layer" or "infrastructure for specific vertical scenarios (such as meme trading and NFTs)," rather than the core hub of the AI Agent economy. The failure of the x402 protocol will mean that Solana will lose its differentiated competitive advantage over Ethereum L2 in the AI×Crypto fusion track. Even if it successfully aligns with Ethereum standards technically, it may be relegated to an awkward position of "performance below expectations and ecosystem inferior to L2" on the commercial level, forced to return to the traditional high TPS narrative.
Therefore, Solana can only maintain its value through two paths:
- Strengthen compliant DAT products to maintain institutional attention, focusing on attracting hedge funds and high-frequency trading institutions, rather than long-term allocation funds such as pension funds.
- Seeking interoperability with Ethereum L2 , Solana aims to become a "high-performance execution layer" within the modular ecosystem—providing an execution environment for applications requiring extreme TPS, ultimately settling payments back to the Ethereum mainnet. This means that Solana's demotion from an independent L1 layer to a complementary execution layer within the Ethereum ecosystem may offer a more stable valuation.
Regardless of the scenario, the market in the second half of the year will focus more on "verifiable revenue flywheels" and "the long-term quality of DAT funds." Both Ethereum's global financial settlement layer and Solana's AI Agent economic infrastructure narrative will face rigorous testing from real-world data. Fund allocation will depend on who can better demonstrate a positive cycle of "ecosystem prosperity → institutional recognition → capital inflow → ecosystem redevelopment."
The market's understanding of the relationship between ETH and SOL will become clearer: Ethereum is the leader and industry standard for institutional public chains, while Solana seeks differentiated survival in vertical scenarios (AI agent economy, high-frequency trading, etc.). Coinbase's emphasis on "differentiated narratives, but not mutually exclusive" will become the mainstream consensus. The final picture of multiple chains coexisting and each occupying its own scenario will become clearer in the second half of the year.
4.3 Risk Warning
1. Technological Risk: Risk of failure of the core mechanism.
If the Ethereum L2 revenue sharing scheme fails to meet expectations, it could trigger governance conflicts and a crisis of trust between L2 and the mainnet. If the "settlement dump" risk warned by Messari is exacerbated by further L2 draining resources, the mainnet inflation problem could worsen.
Another major network outage for Solana would be a fatal blow to its stability narrative. A system crash during the large-scale launch of blockchain games/social applications, or network congestion caused by high-frequency trading by the x402 AI agent , could trigger panic selling and potentially lead to a massive exodus of $1-1.5 billion in DAT funds. Delays to the Firedancer validator client or a failure to significantly improve stability would also dampen market expectations.
2. Technical and Governance Risks of the x402 Protocol
If the TARS proposal is delayed or rejected due to technical complexity or community governance controversies, it will directly shake the foundation of Solana's AI×Crypto strategy. A deeper risk lies in the fact that even if x402 is technically successful, if the actual demand in the AI agent market falls short of expectations, Solana and Base's strategy of betting on x402 may become a classic case of technically feasible but commercially unsuccessful.
3. Application-layer risks: The proliferation of "fat applications" falls short of expectations.
If the overall growth of "fat applications" is slower than market expectations, the narrative will lack a real vehicle. If Solana's 80% meme contribution fails to fall below 50% by 2026, or if Ethereum L2's "zombie chain cleanup" leads to further concentration of liquidity towards Base/Arbitrum, the expectation of multi-chain prosperity will be weakened.
4. Funding Risk: The Systemic Vulnerability of the DAT Model
If institutional holdings of DAT do not grow as expected, a large-scale concentrated withdrawal of funds may occur (such as the top 5 holders simultaneously reducing their holdings), which will directly impact market liquidity. High concentration implies systemic risk; if leading institutions such as Bitmine or Forward sell off their holdings due to operational problems or strategy adjustments, the impact will far exceed retail selling pressure.
in conclusion
In 2026, Ethereum and Solana will each overcome their respective challenges within an asymmetric framework of convergent evolution , and their final positioning will depend on the effectiveness of these challenges.
As a leader in institutional public blockchains, Ethereum needs to solidify its decentralized foundation and solidify its position as the industry standard for global institutional-grade financial settlement layers by leveraging the benefits of traditional capital and RWA scenarios. Solana, on the other hand, needs to overcome the centralization and network stability bottlenecks of the POH mechanism while maintaining its high-performance advantages. Through Alpenglow consensus reconstruction, Firecanver modular transformation, and the construction of an AI Agent economic ecosystem using the x402 protocol, it can complete its convergent evolution towards the institutionalized, modular, and decentralized standards established by Ethereum, and realize the reconstruction from a "retail transaction chain" to "institutionally recognized high-performance infrastructure".
The two are not engaged in a zero-sum game of parallel competition, but rather are exploring value symbiosis. Ethereum has established the industry standard and framework for institutionalized public blockchains, and Solana is moving closer to this standard through technological upgrades and strategic adjustments, attempting to create a differentiated advantage in vertical tracks such as AI×Crypto.
As investors, we need to move beyond short-term price fluctuations and instead focus on Ethereum 's L2 proposal progress, mainnet staking data, stablecoin and RWA fund flows, and ecosystem applications; Solana 's network stability, top application retention rates, x402 protocol implementation progress, and the effectiveness of convergence with Ethereum standards, seizing Alpha opportunities during structural transformation.
The ultimate competitiveness of public blockchains will no longer depend on the battle of TPS or a single technological route, but on their ability to build a sustainable value flywheel through deep symbiosis of ecosystem and capital, within a framework of security, scenario adaptability, and institutional recognition. These factors will jointly propel blockchain from infrastructure competition to an era of application prosperity.
