Two Foolish Approaches to Judging the Bottom The first is the flawed approach of rigidly adhering to a 4-year cycle, claiming we're in the early stages of a bear market. It's been four months since October 10th; can we really call that the beginning of a bear market?! The correct approach should consider technical indicators like EMA and RSI. Using EMA and RSI, we're currently in the middle of a bear market, similar to May-June 2022 and October 2018. This round's pace is clearly earlier and faster. Therefore, the remaining bear market period may not be too long. Looking only at the US cycle, after Warsh takes office in the second half of the year, things should be relatively more relaxed, and the bear market might end in June or July. However, considering Japan's monetary policy, we cannot rule out the possibility of the bear market continuing into September or October. The second flawed approach is calculating price retracements directly on the BTC price. When BTC reaches 1 million, can we directly calculate the retracement based on the price?! The correct approach to calculating retracements should be to calculate the retracement magnitude based on the upward movement. ! Previously, retracement calculations could be done directly at the highest price because the starting point was too low. From 2014 to 2017, BTC rose from 172 to 19665; 172 can be ignored. From 2018 to 2021, BTC rose from 3217 to 67617; 3217 can no longer be ignored. From 2022 to 2025, BTC rose from 15742 to 124773.5; 15742 really cannot be ignored. If we calculate a drop from 124773.5 to 60000, it's only a drop of about 52%, which might give the impression that BTC still has significant downside potential. However, if we calculate the price movement of BTC from 15742 to 124773.5, and then down to 60000: (124773.5-60000)/(124773.5-15742) = 59.4% Therefore, BTC has actually already fallen by about 60%, so the potential for further decline may not be significant. Of course, neither the analysis period nor the price retracement level confirms that 60000 is the bottom of this bear market. It's just that flawed analysis methods lead people to mistakenly believe that the bear market will last a long time and that the decline will be substantial. In fact, the earlier and faster start of this cycle means that the bear market may not be very long, and the potential for further decline in BTC may not be significant.

Tasty

BTC surged 692% from $15,742 to $124,773, then retraced 59.4% to $60,000. • If we refer to the 100% retracement in 2018 and the 132% retracement in 2022, this time it might only require 60-80% (corresponding to $40,000-$48,000). • The key issue is timing: if the bottom is reached in June-October, then the current $60,000 might be in the "late stage of a bear market." 🤔

1. Accelerated decline on the weekly chart. 2. Immediately after the decline, the price consolidates for several weeks (triangle, parallel, or any other pattern is acceptable). 3. Rapid rebound without making a new low. 4. Indicators begin to favor oversold conditions while ignoring overbought conditions. 5. Some speculative cryptocurrencies show signs of strengthening. 6. Large buy orders on the order book. 7. Oversold condition on the weekly chart, similar to June 20, 2022. These are roughly the details.

Yes, actually, the current price drop is expected to last until May or June 2022. If there's another drop, then if it doesn't happen in May, then it'll be June, haha. It's an honor to have such frequent interactions with Teacher Baiwan and Brother Feng!