Extreme Volume Spike: The Start of a New Round of Volatility and Games⛳️ Picking up from the last thread—this near cliff-drop dump almost triggered those deep bear valuation models with a 100% historical win rate, including the PSIP bottom signal I shared yesterday. Unfortunately, “almost” doesn’t cut it—we’re still missing that “final shakeout” before a true bottom, but last week’s insane volume is a clear sign: a new round of choppy volatility is about to kick off 👇 Check the chart below—I’ve sketched out what I think is the “ideal BTC bottom formation.” Here are some key signals from last week’s crash you can’t ignore 🚨: 🔺 On 2/05, we saw extreme volume—the biggest since August 2024. 🔺 Fear & Greed Index hit 5, the lowest since 2019. 🔺 Price dumped right onto the deviation-adjusted STH-RP model blue line🔵. 🔺 Price instantly fell into the “super consolidation zone” from Mar-Oct 2024. 🔺 Just one step away from triggering all major deep bear valuation signals. 📖 “The Power of the Blue Line”: Deep Dive on BTC’s Strong Support & Historical Backtests x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… All these signs basically confirm one thing: “As long as there’s no black swan, wide-range chop is almost inevitable‼️” Remember just a short while ago: After the local bottom in the Nov 21, 2025 dump, BTC churned sideways for almost two months. Volatility compressed hard toward the end, then the market picked a direction—breaking down into a trending dump. My thoughts on that range and volatility are in this thread: 📖 Downside Risk Rises & Calm Before the Storm x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… “Chop ➡️ Volatility Compression ➡️ Trend ➡️ Massive Volume ➡️ Chop …” That’s been BTC’s cycle since day one—rinse and repeat, nothing new. Given the current signals, I’m betting there’s a high probability BTC is about to enter another period of wide, whipsawing volatility. But here’s the difference from last November’s dump: ➡️ Back then, price was at the highs. Now, we’re almost in the deep bear valuation zone. ➡️ This is the first time this cycle BTC’s dropped back to the model’s blue line. TL;DR: Odds are high this dump will carve out the final bottom✅ Same playbook as last November’s crash + massive volume: Since wide-range chop is almost a lock, here’s what I’ll be watching: ➡️ Does clear liquidity get left above or below during the chop? ➡️ If we see liquidity left below, it needs to be swept first before a real move higher. ➡️ So, don’t ape long until those lower liquidity pools are cleared. ➡️ Since we’re near deep bear bottom zones, also watch for: “If a downside stop hunt nukes the lows, does it tag the model’s value zone? That’s the confluence you want.” One last hot topic: “Could a US stock crash drag BTC lower❓” Easy answer: Flashback to August 2024—carry trade unwind, Sam rules, all that jazz—market nuked, US stocks pulled back, BTC flash crashed to 49K. People panicked, some even called the bull market dead. But zoom out: S&P 500 only corrected less than 10% since mid-July 2024. BTC dumped harder, but I didn’t see real capitulation. Instead, BTC printed a textbook bullish stop hunt🔥 I’ve done a post-mortem on that move—check it here: x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… So, looking back, that US stock “crash” was just a normal correction in an uptrend. If we get a similar correction again, sure—BTC might get dragged down short-term, but that’s not necessarily bearish. In fact, if BTC is already in a wide choppy range when stocks correct, that could be the catalyst for one last stop hunt sweep into the deep bear bottom zone—a true “final flush”—setting up the perfect bottom and giving us all the conviction to ape in🔋 Of course, this is just scenario analysis, not a prediction. I don’t have a crystal ball—I can’t say if US stocks will correct. But if it happens, maybe we run the August 2024 script back one more time… 👀 That’s all for today—hope this helps🫡 // 📚 Further Reading: Latest Deep Bear Valuation Data: Cheap BTC Incoming x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… TA Thread: Ideal Bottom Structure from a Liquidity Perspective x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… “Gap Fill in Progress”: 74K Target Hit, Where’s the End of the Dump? x.com/market_beggar/status/201...…