
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>Bearish on BTC, rebound but not a reversal</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Watch 4H EMA20; if not broken, BTC may rebound to EMA50/EMA100, overall trend remains bearish</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
BTC is in a downtrend
    </li>
    <li>
recent rebound is a technical oversold correction, EMA system and price structure show no reversal
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

比特币 $BTC 不有效跌破4H EMA20，就仍有较大概率向EMA50乃至EMA100区域反弹。
但反弹不等于反转，无论从EMA系统排列，还是价格结构来看，比特币仍处于下跌趋势中。
近两日的上涨更多属于加速超跌后的技术性反弹，并不改变整体趋势方向。
至于何时构成反转或底部确认，无需预测。
市场自会在震荡与测试中，逐步走出更明确的结构与信号。（比如高低点抬高+尊重超卖，无视超买）

即便执行 DCA，我也低估了本轮 $BTC 下跌的力度。
首仓位置不佳，超乎预期的下跌节奏，使得整体心态陷入被动。
虽然补仓后出现反弹，但我更担心二次下探的风险。
心态优先于策略，我选择先降仓30%，再图后续。
市场又给上了一课，这次给面子，让我跑了，下次就没这么好的事了…  x.com/cyclestudies/s…

百萬Eric | Day Trader

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As long as Bitcoin $BTC doesn't break below the 4H EMA20 decisively, there's still a good chance for a rebound towards the EMA50 or even EMA100 zone.

However, a rebound doesn't mean a trend reversal. Both the EMA alignment and the current price structure show that BTC is still in a downtrend.

The recent bounce is more of a technical reaction after an accelerated oversold move, not a shift in the overall trend.

No need to predict exactly when a reversal or bottom will be confirmed—the market will naturally reveal clearer structure and signals through consolidation and retesting. (For example, higher highs and lows, respecting oversold levels while ignoring overbought signals.)

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has announced a 20-year prison sentence for Daren Li, 42, for his involvement in a global cryptocurrency investment scam. Notably, the sentence was...

The ringleader of a cryptocurrency scam worth approximately $74 million has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Bitcoin rose as much as 3.3% to $71,000 last night, following the performance of US stocks, but faced heavy selling pressure after the close, currently trading at $70,289. Ethereum briefly broke through […].
The article, titled "Bitcoin and US Stocks Surge to $71,000, Ethereum Fluctuates and Falls Back to $2,150, Bitmine BlockTempo the Opportunity to Buy the dips 80 Million ETH," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential ABMedia media.

Bitcoin surged to $71,000, mirroring the rise in US stocks, while Ethereum fluctuated and then fell back to $2,150. Bitmine buy the dips the opportunity to buy 80 million worth of ETH.