Yili Hua has fully liquidated his positions. As one of the biggest Ethereum bulls this cycle, he exits the stage with a staggering loss of around -$734 million. Honestly, it’s pretty heartbreaking… I originally thought he was just de-risking and reducing leverage, but it turns out he sold off his spot holdings too.
I remember on December 30, 2025, I analyzed “when ETH is worth bottom-fishing” from four angles: sentiment, structure, cost, and overall score.
Basically, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, price is below whale average cost, and market composite score < 1 — at least 2 out of these 4 conditions need to be met to start building a position; 3 or more, and you can consider scaling up.
Back then, none of these conditions were met, so IMO, $2,950 ETH wasn’t worth buying. But Boss Yi’s fund, Trend Research, went all-in, completely opposite to my view. Hard to imagine institutions taking on that much risk.
Fast forward to now, looking at these 4 charts:
(Chart 1)
1. LTH-NUPL = 0.1; not met, but just one step away from dropping below zero.
(Chart 2)
2. PSIP = 39.9%; met. The current percent of profitable supply is even lower than the lowest points in April 2025 and June 2022.
(Chart 3)
3. Price is below the average cost of the 3 main whale cohorts ($2,051, $2,198, $2,392); met.
(Chart 4)
4. Market composite score = 1; not <1, but already in the bottom range.
So, if I had to rate ETH right now, I’d say “buy in batches (spot),” not “full liquidation”—once again, my view is the exact opposite of Boss Yi’s trade. Whether I’m right or wrong, only time will tell.
Boss Yi nailed the ETH bottom in April 2025, and the timing matched all four criteria perfectly. But this time, with almost the same composite score, he chose to exit. Maybe the massive losses messed with his head, or maybe it’s just financial pressure.
Either way, the outcome is really regrettable…
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For educational purposes only, not investment advice!
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